瑞士投资

《传承宝典》13 家族办公室CIO的观点 今天的市场被一分为二：一方面，我们看到了新的世界秩序——主要由科技推动的、结构性增长的题材。我们认为，脸书（Facebook）、亚马逊(Amazon)、Netflix（在线电影网站）和谷歌（以上四大科技股合称为Fangs）等公司将成为占主导地位的关键参与者，即使如果不是当下，它们也将成为未来世界上最赚钱的组织。另一方面，您们手头还有价值型股票，被许多人错误地标注为“旧世界”企业、超过了它们的销售保质期，在新的世界经济中已没有任何作用了。在一个理想世界里，你将会二者兼持、获益最佳。Fangs（四大科技股）和他们的同类是极具吸引力的生意。如果不至少参与到一些长期的结构性增长型题材之中，那将是愚蠢的，无论是科技还是医疗。然而，由于他们所承诺的长期增长，以及在某种程度上的主导优势地位，Fangs的定价也很高。 对于更传统的行业，一些将会倒闭；这是不可避免的。今天，当众多充满吸引力的公司，被视为最具有深层价值的投资机会时，远离那些苦苦挣扎的公司，无疑是非常正确的。然而，如果认为其他旧世界公司的技术娴熟、薪酬丰厚的管理团队无法重新定位自己、重新部署资本，以适应新的世界环境，那将是短视的。 一些例子正在成为现实。许多房地产公司被廉价出售，似乎再也找不到支付租金的房客了。事实上，随着网络经济对物流业的需求激增，许多开发商已经逐步发展出了自己的商业模式，创建了多用途的城市再改造项目，或者将单元房改造成仓库。以美国第一家购物中心的重建为例。这座有着188年历史的美丽的罗德岛建筑，曾经是三层楼高的精品店铺，现在已经变成了48套微型公寓和一片合并办公区。注销此类企业的增长潜力是错误的。 不起眼的租车公司就是另一个例子。许多投资者认为，优步（Uber）和点对点(peer-to-peer)汽车共享等打车应用软件，敲响了该行业的丧钟。诚然，市场会出现一些合并，但适者依旧生存。2018年9月，赫兹租车推出了 Hertz+平台，让客户获得数千种独特的个性化体验，包括赴阿拉斯加赏鲸，或是温莎城堡的导游服务。像这样的公司会发现，有一群客户很愿意以能够生成利润的价格买下他们的服务。那些这一类的公司，就是你想要接触到的价值型企业。 所有这一切并不是说传统企业会突然重新占据主导优势地位，亦或曾经境况不佳的购物中心的交易量将超过亚马逊(Amazon)。但他们也不会全部都破产。在我们的客户投资组合中，我们的目标是实现：结构性增长型题材、与能够扭转命运的低成本价值型企业、这之间的一种愉快的结合(a happy mix)。没有必要要求他们从零利润到天价利润。即使是一点点的改善，价值10%或15%，也会非常有吸引力。 English Version View from the CIO: Decimation of traditional businesses overhyped Today’s market is split in two. On one hand, you have the new world order-structural growth stories, driven largely by technology. These, the likes of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Fangs), are the companies we feel will be the dominant key players and, if not already, the most profitable organizationsin the world to come. On the other hand, you have value stocks, wrongly written off by many as‘old world’ businesses, past their sell-by dates with no role to play in the new world economy. In an ideal world, you would participate in the best of both. The Fangs and their ilk are extremely attractive businesses. It would be foolish not to at least participate in some of these long-term structural growth stories, be it technology or healthcare. They are, however, highly priced for the long-term growth they promise and, to some extent, for their dominance. For the more traditional businesses, some will go to the wall; that is inevitable. Quite right to stay away from those struggling today when many are being presented as attractive deep value opportunities. It would be short-sighted, though, to assume that the skilled, well-paid management teams of other old world companies are unable to reposition themselves and redeploy their capital to operate in a new world environment. Some examples are materializing. Many real estate companies have been sold-off as if they will never again find paying tenants. In fact, many have evolved their business models to create mixed-use urban redevelopments or by converting units into warehouses as the online economy’s logistical demands soar. Take the redevelopment of America’s first shopping mall, for instance. This beautiful 188-year old Rhode Island building, once three floors of boutiques, is now 48 micro-apartments and a mix of businesses. It would be wrong to write-off the growth potential of businesses like this. The humble car hire company is another case in point. Many investors cite ride-hailing apps like Uber and peer-to-peer car sharing as sounding the industry’s death knell. True, there will be some consolidation in the market, but the fittest will survive. In September 2018, Hertz launched Hertz+, a platform giving customers access to thousands of unique, personalized experiences including whale watching in Alaska, or guided tours of Windsor Castle. Companies like this will find that group of customers prepared to use their services for a price that generates a profit. Those that do are the value businesses you want to have some exposure to. All this is not to say that traditional businesses will enjoy a sudden return to dominance, with once ailing shopping malls out-trading Amazon. But neither will they all go bust. In our client portfolios we aim to achieve a happy mix between structural growth stories and lower cost value businesse swith the ability to turn their fortunes around. There is no requirement for them to go from zero to stratospheric profits. Even a little bit of improvement, worth 10 or 15%, could be really quite attractive. 该文章为搜瑞士网站原创，部分图片摘引自网络媒体的公开资源，如需转载，敬请注明出处。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com

《传承宝典》12 Roelof Botha两分钟访谈 Roelof Botha 罗洛夫-博塔 Stonehage Fleming 家族办公室合伙人 - 伦敦大区负责人 前言： 作为一位英国家族办公室的负责人，Roelof 在管理高净值家庭和个人的全球利益方面拥有丰富的经验。他参与了许多不同的司法管辖区的商业活动、财富管理、财产梳理、艺术收藏和慈善事业。他一贯融入两代人或更多代之间，特别强调长期风险管理和协作决策。 Roelof 于2012年从德意志银行的伦敦分行加入Stonehage Fleming集团。他拥有会计荣誉学士学位，曾供职于毕马威会计师事务所，并于2007年获得英国特许会计师资格。他也是南非特许会计师协会（SAICA）和国际信托房地产从业者协会（STEP）的成员。鲜有某一项家族状况，是我们前所未见的。我们谈论的是“实用智慧”——我们的客户可以从中吸取大量的共享知识。我们利用这些经验，来帮助家族成员之间进行辩论，并在适当的时机提出解决方案。促进这种讨论是我们所扮演角色的一大重要戏份，特别是在确定家族财富的目的、或处理继承权规划之类的敏感问题时。我们在帮助家族成员就其核心战略目标达成协议、同步建立一个旨在让所有人都有发言权的决策框架方面，发挥着核心的作用。 我们的大多数客户都是企业家。那些从自己的生意中创造财富的人，常常会以他们的个人事务与其商业活动交织纠缠在一起而告终。随着业务的蓬勃增长，通常情况下，诸如外部股东加入企业等事件，会促使人们重新审视：他们是如何管理自身事务的，往往导致他们随即成立其家族办公室。 家族办公室能把一切都联接在一起。人们会对我们与客户的合作程度感到惊讶；我们经常每天与他们交谈数次，无论是关于正在买卖的资产、正在建立的企业、还是正在落实的家庭安排。由团队来运行这些流程，在适当的时候呈递上汲取自专家们的建议，并提供一系列行政管理服务来实现所做的决策。这些或可覆盖家族企业、投资、艺术品管理、员工雇佣或慈善事业等范围。我们处理全局(big picture)，包括但远远超出家庭财务安排的技术性细节。 不存在什么“独门秘方”。适合一个家族的，不一定适用于所有人。有些客户来找我们的时候，他们的团队已经就位了。我们与一众更大体量级的客户们合作，并与他们的内部团队合作——我们为自己与其他各专业领域人士合作的这份能力感到自豪。对于其他客户，我们从第一天起就承担起他们所有的家族办公室事务。我们所提供的服务，既精确排序又完全灵活；一个家庭的优先级事项时常发生变化，我们完全适应这种变化的需求。 English Version Two minutes with Roelof Botha Roelof Botha Partner – Head of Stonehage Fleming Family Office, London As Head of our UK Family Office, Roelof has extensive experience of managing the worldwide interests of wealthy families and individuals. His involvement spans the whole spectrum of his clients’ affairs, including their business activities, wealth management, property, art collections and philanthropy, often conducted through a number of different structures, across several jurisdictions. He is typically involved across two or more generations, with particular emphasis on long-term risk management and promoting collaborative decision making through good family governance. Roelof joined the Group in 2012 from Deutsche Bank in London. He holds a Bachelor of Accounting (Honours) Degree and qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 2007. He is a member of theSouth African Institute of Chartered Accountants (SAICA), as well as STEP. There are very few family situations we haven’t seen before. We talk about ‘practical wisdom’ - the huge pool of shared learning our clients can draw from. We use these experiences to help inform debate among family members and to suggest solutions where appropriate. It is an important part of our role to facilitate such discussions, particularly when defining the purpose of a family’s wealth or addressing the sensitivities of succession planning. We play a central role in helping family members reach agreement on their core strategic objectives and putting in place a decision-making framework which aims to give a voice to all. The majority of our clients are entrepreneurial. People who have created their wealth from their own businesses often end up with their personal affairs entwined with their business activities. As the business grows, usually an event such as the entrance of an external shareholder will prompt a review of how they run their affairs which often results in their engaging a family office. The Family Office is what ties everything together. People would be amazed at the extent of our involvement with clients; we often speak to them several times a day, whether it be on assets being bought or sold, ventures being established or family arrangements being put in place. The team runs these processes, giving or obtaining expert advice when appropriate and providing a range of administration services to implement the decisions made. These may cover the family business, investments, art management, staff employment or philanthropy, to name a few. We deal with the big picture, including but extending far beyond the technicalities of a family’s financial arrangements. There is no ‘secret formula’. What is right for one family may not be right for everyone. Some clients come to us with some sort of a team already in place. With a number of our bigger clients we collaborate with their in-house teams - we pride ourselves on our ability to work with other professionals. With others, we take on all their family office affairs from day one. The exact permutation of services we offer is fully flexible; a family’s priorities will change and we can adapt to meet such changing requirements. 该文章为搜瑞士网站原创，部分图片摘引自网络媒体的公开资源，如需转载，敬请注明出处。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com

瑞士劳动法：瑞士雇佣环境特别受到海外投资者的青睐 根据欧洲工会研究所对2010至2017年间关于瑞士及欧盟成员国的统计，瑞士以每1000名员工中仅有1天罢工日的记录胜出其他欧盟成员国。相比较而言，每1000名员工中其他欧盟成员国的罢工日为：法国125天、挪威66天、丹麦54天、西班牙50天、英国20天、德国17天、爱尔兰17天、荷兰13天。除了罢工的几率小到可以忽略不计，瑞士的劳动法和用工环境对于海外投资者来说的优势又有哪些呢？本期的瑞士法律简报将进一步为您介绍瑞士的劳动法。瑞士自由的雇佣关系体现在拥有欧洲最自由的劳动法之一、工会化程度较低以及温和的工会等。正因如此，在欧洲，多年来瑞士的失业率一直都保持最低之一。瑞士雇佣环境受海外投资者青睐的原因又具体包括雇佣和解雇的灵活性大、劳动法对于公司和员工双向选择的法定约束少、员工的年总工作时数比欧洲其他国家长、罢工的几率小到可以忽略不计、公司对员工缴纳的社保负担比其他欧洲国家低等。 1. 劳动关系和劳动合同： 瑞士劳动法对于公司和员工之间的劳动关系的成立无形式上的要求，但是建议公司最好在雇佣员工之前与员工签订劳动合同，其中应至少包括合同双方、开始日期、职位、工资、周工作时数等内容。外国投资者在瑞士初设公司的，最好在律师的帮助下起草与员工的劳动合同，一方面做到合法合规，另一方面确保公司的需求得到最大化的保护。法定的试用期为1个月，公司和员工可以在劳动合同中另约定延长试用期至3个月。试用期内，双方有权提前7天解除劳动合同。法定的解约通知期根据员工在职年限的长短而异：1个月（在职1年内）、2个月（在职2到9年）、3个月（在职10年以上）。双方可在劳动合同中约定延长上述法定解约通知期。公司解雇员工或员工主动辞职都没有法定要求的限制，另外公司也不需支付遣散费。 2. 工作时数和休假： 瑞士员工的正常周工作时数为40到44小时。工厂工人、办公室职员、技术人员、包括大商场的销售人员每周最长工作时数为45小时，其他商业机构每周最长工作时数为50小时。超出每周正常工作时数但在最长工作时数内的为加班工时，公司应支付25%的额外加班费。双方也可在劳动合同中约定通过调休的形式来弥补加班工时，或者免除加班工时的补偿。超出每周最长工作时数的为超长工时。劳动法规定每个员工每天不可有多于2小时的超长工时，一年内超长工时总计不可多于170小时（最长工时为45小时）或140小时（最长工时为50小时）。超长工时的补偿与加班补偿一样。员工法定的年带薪假期为4周，不超过20岁的员工的年带薪假期为5周。带薪假期必须休，不可以支付额外工资的形式来代替。 3. 非全职雇佣关系： 瑞士劳动法自由的另一体现是惯为常见的非全职雇佣关系，非全职不只试用便利店等的小时工种，在各行各业都广泛适用并被员工接受。对于刚到瑞士的中国投资者来说，可根据自己公司的业务量和业务需要，招聘非全职的员工。如前台只要求每天上午上班的话，可招工作量为50%的前台；如会计只需要一周上一天班，则可招工作量为20%的会计。员工的工时、带薪假期、工资、社保等都按照工作量的比例计算。 该文章转载自 VISCHER事务所，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com

2019年5月资产管理月度简报 公牛翻了个身 尽管美国和中国之间的贸易协定在一个月前似乎接近达成，但谈判已暂停。与此同时，美国将对所有进口自中国的商品征收关税，中国也将对从美国进口的600亿美元商品征收关税作为反制。为了希望墨西哥采取行动遏制中美洲移民，特朗普总统威胁要对墨西哥进口商品征收关税，尽管最近已达成了《USMCA》（新北美自贸协定）或《NAFTA 2》（北美自由贸易协定2）。对于美国消费者和全球增长的影响很可能将会是负面的。包括石油和有色金属在内的大宗商品价格，在近几周内下跌了10%以上，而政府债券收益率则处于九个月以来的最低水平。5月31号退出 如下图所示，标普500指数在5月31日突破了200日移动平均线，与20日移动平均线切入50日线重合。4月1日，当标普指数为2851时，我们进行了再投资。该指数随后升至2940点的两个新高，并于上周五跌至2753点。我们在4月至5月之间出现了小幅亏损，但与去年10月卖出时持平，为2708点。回想一下我们的第一条规则：当市场趋势转为负面时，不要继续投资。美国经济增长依然强劲 美国国内生产总值（GDP）仍保持在复苏较快的+3.2%增长率，而中国似乎正在下滑至+6%以下。与此同时，疲软的德国工业需求使欧元区经济增速放缓至1.3%。美国企业能否继续实现足够强劲的盈利，以证明股价上涨是合理的？尽管这一趋势并不新鲜，但美国企业一直在以创纪录的速度回购股票。这既支撑了它们的股价，也表明企业缺乏投资他们的业务的信心。我们的政策 正如读者所知，La Soleille不会根据经济、行业或公司分析做市场预测，只按照市场行情和其它技术指标作出判断。在资产管理方面，我们遵循的原则是：• 鉴别并紧跟上涨行情（追逐风险）；• 出现下跌行情时立刻清仓（规避风险）；• 确认触底时逐步建仓（重新追逐风险）；• 利用指数基金进行分散投资，尽量降低投资一种股票或债券的风险。我们利用价格-概率数学建模法判断市场是否显现利好或下跌趋势，是否走强或走弱，是否有可能在下一个周期（对我们而言是一个月）继续利好或下跌行情，（以此控制“摩擦性”交易成本）。La Soleille在趋势变化时采取相反立场，尤其是在止跌反弹时。回顾和展望 尽管上证综指已经企稳，但在2019年，上证综指(+16.9%)将其全球表现最佳的国家股指位置，让给了俄罗斯(+19.7%)，其次是澳大利亚(+14.5%)、瑞士(+13.2%)、加拿大(+12.6%)和德国(+12.1%)，均高于标普500指数(+11.0%)。值得注意的是，俄罗斯、澳大利亚和加拿大的经济与大宗商品紧密相连，而德国工业趋疲弱，瑞士则依赖于向欧盟日趋放缓的商品出口：基本面因素并不总是能解释股市走势。在5月31日出售所有头寸后，我们持有100%的现金。我们将耐心等待，直到股价建立起一个可靠的底部。上周五强劲的技术信号让我们在两个月后退出市场。股市下跌缓慢，上周有所加速（标准普尔500指数下跌-6％）。我们的方法很明确：我们已经避免了从10月到12月的下跌，并且不再受到进一步疲软的影响。James CunninghamChief Investment Officer首席投资官La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA瑞士雷梭勒家族办公室May 31st, 20192019年5月31日 English Version The Bull Rolls Over Although a trade agreement between the US and China seemed close a month ago, talks have been suspended. Meanwhile, America is set to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports, with China retaliating with its own tariffs on $60 billion of imports from the US. In hopes that Mexico will act to restrain migrants from Central America, President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Mexican imports despite the recently agreed USMCA or “NAFTA 2” treaty. The impact on US consumers and on global growth is likely to be negative. Commodities including oil and base metals have declined by more than 10% in weeks, while government bond yields are at lows not seen for nine months. Back out on May 31st As can be seen on the chart below, the S&P 500 index crossed the 200-day moving average on May 31st, coincident with the 20-day average cutting through the 50-day line. We had reinvested on April 1st when the S&P stood at 2851. It subsequently rose to two new peaks at 2940 before declining to 2753 on Friday. We have incurred a small loss in April-May but are roughly where we sold in October, at 2708. Recall our first rule: don’t stay invested when the market trend turns negative.US Growth Still StrongAmerican GDP remains resilient at +3.2%, while China seems to be slipping below +6%. Meanwhile, weak German industrial demand has slowed the Euro-area to +1.3%. Can US companies continue to deliver earnings strong enough to justify higher share prices? Althgough the trend is not new, Amercian corporations have been buying back their shares at a record pace. This both supports their share prices and suggets that companies lack the confidence to invest in their businesses instead.Our PolicyAs our readers know, La Soleille does not make predictions but acts on market trends and other technical signals alone. In asset management we follow four principles:• Identify and follow positive trends (risk on)• Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off)• Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on)• Diversify by using index-tracking funds, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bondWe use mathematical modeling of prices and probabilities to determine if a trend is positive or negative, strengthening or weakening, and likely or not to continue for the next period which for us is one month, to control trading cost “friction”.Summary And OutlookAlthough it has stabilized, Shanghai (+16.9%) has ceded its place as the best-performing national stock index thus far in 2019 to Russia (+19.7%) followed by Australia (+14.5%), Switzerland (+13.2%), Canada (+12.6%) and Germany (+12.1%), all above the S&P 500 at +11.0%. Note that the Russian, Australian and Canadian economies are tied to commodities, while German industry is weak and Switzerland depends on exports to a slowing EU: fundamentals do not consistently explain stock market trends. After the sale of all of our positions on May 31st we are 100% in cash. We will be patient until a credible bottom in share prices builds.We are back out of the markets after two months on a strong technical signal last Friday. The decline in equities has been a slow drift, accelerating somewhat last week (-6% on the S&P 500 index). Our method is clear: we have avoided the drop from October to December and are insulated against further weakness going forward.James CunninghamChief Investment OfficerLa Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SAMay 31st, 2019 该文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com