《传承宝典》13: 家族办公室CIO的观点
发布时间：2019-06-19
《传承宝典》13
家族办公室CIO的观点
今天的市场被一分为二：一方面，我们看到了新的世界秩序——主要由科技推动的、结构性增长的题材。我们认为，脸书（Facebook）、亚马逊(Amazon)、Netflix（在线电影网站）和谷歌（以上四大科技股合称为Fangs）等公司将成为占主导地位的关键参与者，即使如果不是当下，它们也将成为未来世界上最赚钱的组织。另一方面，您们手头还有价值型股票，被许多人错误地标注为“旧世界”企业、超过了它们的销售保质期，在新的世界经济中已没有任何作用了。在一个理想世界里，你将会二者兼持、获益最佳。Fangs（四大科技股）和他们的同类是极具吸引力的生意。如果不至少参与到一些长期的结构性增长型题材之中，那将是愚蠢的，无论是科技还是医疗。然而，由于他们所承诺的长期增长，以及在某种程度上的主导优势地位，Fangs的定价也很高。
对于更传统的行业，一些将会倒闭；这是不可避免的。今天，当众多充满吸引力的公司，被视为最具有深层价值的投资机会时，远离那些苦苦挣扎的公司，无疑是非常正确的。然而，如果认为其他旧世界公司的技术娴熟、薪酬丰厚的管理团队无法重新定位自己、重新部署资本，以适应新的世界环境，那将是短视的。 一些例子正在成为现实。许多房地产公司被廉价出售，似乎再也找不到支付租金的房客了。事实上，随着网络经济对物流业的需求激增，许多开发商已经逐步发展出了自己的商业模式，创建了多用途的城市再改造项目，或者将单元房改造成仓库。以美国第一家购物中心的重建为例。这座有着188年历史的美丽的罗德岛建筑，曾经是三层楼高的精品店铺，现在已经变成了48套微型公寓和一片合并办公区。注销此类企业的增长潜力是错误的。
不起眼的租车公司就是另一个例子。许多投资者认为，优步（Uber）和点对点(peer-to-peer)汽车共享等打车应用软件，敲响了该行业的丧钟。诚然，市场会出现一些合并，但适者依旧生存。2018年9月，赫兹租车推出了 Hertz+平台，让客户获得数千种独特的个性化体验，包括赴阿拉斯加赏鲸，或是温莎城堡的导游服务。像这样的公司会发现，有一群客户很愿意以能够生成利润的价格买下他们的服务。那些这一类的公司，就是你想要接触到的价值型企业。 所有这一切并不是说传统企业会突然重新占据主导优势地位，亦或曾经境况不佳的购物中心的交易量将超过亚马逊(Amazon)。但他们也不会全部都破产。在我们的客户投资组合中，我们的目标是实现：结构性增长型题材、与能够扭转命运的低成本价值型企业、这之间的一种愉快的结合(a happy mix)。没有必要要求他们从零利润到天价利润。即使是一点点的改善，价值10%或15%，也会非常有吸引力。
English Version
View from the CIO: Decimation of traditional businesses overhyped
Today’s market is split in two. On one hand, you have the new world order-structural growth stories, driven largely by technology. These, the likes of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Fangs), are the companies we feel will be the dominant key players and, if not already, the most profitable organizationsin the world to come.
On the other hand, you have value stocks, wrongly written off by many as‘old world’ businesses, past their sell-by dates with no role to play in the new world economy.
In an ideal world, you would participate in the best of both. The Fangs and their ilk are extremely attractive businesses. It would be foolish not to at least participate in some of these long-term structural growth stories, be it technology or healthcare. They are, however, highly priced for the long-term growth they promise and, to some extent, for their dominance.
For the more traditional businesses, some will go to the wall; that is inevitable. Quite right to stay away from those struggling today when many are being presented as attractive deep value opportunities. It would be short-sighted, though, to assume that the skilled, well-paid management teams of other old world companies are unable to reposition themselves and redeploy their capital to operate in a new world environment.
Some examples are materializing. Many real estate companies have been sold-off as if they will never again find paying tenants. In fact, many have evolved their business models to create mixed-use urban redevelopments or by converting units into warehouses as the online economy’s logistical demands soar. Take the redevelopment of America’s first shopping mall, for instance. This beautiful 188-year old Rhode Island building, once three floors of boutiques, is now 48 micro-apartments and a mix of businesses. It would be wrong to write-off the growth potential of businesses like this.
The humble car hire company is another case in point. Many investors cite ride-hailing apps like Uber and peer-to-peer car sharing as sounding the industry’s death knell. True, there will be some consolidation in the market, but the fittest will survive. In September 2018, Hertz launched Hertz+, a platform giving customers access to thousands of unique, personalized experiences including whale watching in Alaska, or guided tours of Windsor Castle. Companies like this will find that group of customers prepared to use their services for a price that generates a profit. Those that do are the value businesses you want to have some exposure to.
All this is not to say that traditional businesses will enjoy a sudden return to dominance, with once ailing shopping malls out-trading Amazon. But neither will they all go bust. In our client portfolios we aim to achieve a happy mix between structural growth stories and lower cost value businesse swith the ability to turn their fortunes around. There is no requirement for them to go from zero to stratospheric profits. Even a little bit of improvement, worth 10 or 15%, could be really quite attractive.
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