瑞士投资

《传承宝典》2更广泛的财富理念 超越遗嘱的“宪法（家族宪章）”，或一整套规则，有助于防止家庭分裂。说到理财计划，大多数人只关心存够钱，让自己过得舒服，或许还会留一点给子女或孙辈。然而，有些家族是幸运的，他们已经创造了足够多的财富，留下了可以代代相传的遗产。对这些家族来说，虽然重在保全并维持他们的财富直至未来，但更令人关切的是：以一种家庭单位完整维系的方式来管理家族。国际家族事务办公室 Stonehage Fleming 的合伙人马修•弗莱明(Matthew Fleming)表示:“每个家庭都有自己的动力（dynamics），但根据我们的经验，这些动力往往与财富有关。”他当然清楚。因为他是弗莱明的第五代子孙。弗莱明家族所有200位在世成员,都是其家族办公室的客户和股东。“我理解与财富相对应的特权，以及随之而来的责任。”他还明白，如果没有适当的结构和规则来管理这些遗产，家族内部的瓦解——乃至财富蒸发——是多么地容易。正是基于这一点，该机构大约每两年进行一次调查，以了解诸多家族正在面临的问题。其最新的报告《资本的四大支柱：变革时代的实践智慧和领导力》概述了财富跨代转移的挑战。 该报告的标题暗示了这样一个事实，即：一个家族的有形资产，只是其更广泛遗产的一部分，就像桌子的四根柱或四条腿一样，每一支柱（资本）都有其发挥的作用：金融资本——构成家族财富的有形资产、企业和财产; 智力资本——一个家族应用于管理其财富、对社会的贡献和集体福祉的技能、知识、经验和智慧; 文化资本——通过确定家族成员在生活中的共同观点和主题，将一个家庭(或无法)凝聚在一起; 社会资本——家族与社会、及其生活所在的社区之间的联系和参与方式. 弗莱明先生通过伦敦的一个视频连线，与媒体建立了联系，他说：年轻一代正在努力应对的正是这种社会资本。“他们非常清楚不平等的加剧，以及许多人与资本主义的脱节。”越来越多的人认为：财富只有被用来为社会做出积极贡献，同时满足家庭的财务需求，才能代代相传。 “软问题”更加复杂 越来越多的家族也开始意识到，保本只是管理财富的一个简单部分。而“软问题”则要复杂得多。其中就包括：继承规划、家族领导权和激励下一代。弗莱明先生表示:“家族成员意识到，家族领导权不应简单地传给长子，而应是精英管理，培训则是必不可少的。”虽然南非有许多跨越4代、5代、6代或更久的家族，但Stonehage Fleming在当地的家族办公室也为那些最近才赚到大钱的家庭提供支持。当地办事处CEO约翰•范•齐尔表示:“这些人可能包括当地商界人士、体育明星或其他人才。” 虽然财富的创造者们可能会说：他们不想从坟墓里来延续统治，但拥有一部“宪法（家族宪章）”，或一整套超越遗嘱的规则来管理您的财富，的确可以帮助防止家庭分裂。曼德拉家族或许可以证明这一点。 English Version A ‘constitution’ or set of rules that goes beyond a will can help to prevent division in families. When it comes to financial planning, most people are concerned simply with saving enough to see out their lives comfortably and perhaps leaving a little for their children or grand children. However, some families are in the fortunate position where sufficient wealth has been generated to leave a legacy that can be handed down from generation to generation. For these families, while the focus is on preserving and sustaining their wealth into the future, of greater concern is managing the family in a way that preserves the integrity of the family unit. “Every family has their own dynamics, but in our experience, these are very often compounded by wealth,”says Matthew Fleming, a partner at international family office Stonehage Fleming. He should know. He is a fifth-generation Fleming. All 200 living members of the Fleming family are clients of and shareholders in the family office. “I understand the privilege of relative wealth and the responsibilities that come with that.” He also understands how easily families can implode – and wealthe vaporate – if there are no structures and rules in place to manage that legacy. It is with this in mind that the firm conducts a survey, roughly every two years, to understand the issues facing families. Its latest report, Four Pillars of Capital: Practical Wisdom and Leadership for Changing Times, outlines the challenges in the transfer of wealth across generations. The title of the report alludes to the fact that a family’s tangible assets are just one part of a broader legacy and – like four pillars or legs of a table – each has a role to play. Financial Capital: The tangible assets, businesses and properties that make up a familys wealth Intellectual Capital: The skill, knowledge, experience and wisdom that a family can apply to the management of its wealth, its contribution to society, and its collective well-being Cultural Capital: That which brings a family together (or not) by identifying shared perspectives and themes in the way its members conduct their lives, and Social capital – the way in which a family relates to and engages with society and the communities in which it lives and operates. Social Capital: It is this social capital that the younger generation is grappling with,says Fleming, who connected with media via a video link from London. “They are very aware of growing inequality and the disconnect that many people are feeling from capitalism. There is a growing belief that wealth can only be created and preserved through generations if it is used to make a positive contribution to the community, as well as providing for a family’s financial needs,” he says. The report notes that the gulf in perceptions and values between the generations is significantly greater than in the past, which has an impact onlong-term planning objectives. However, inter generational relationships are less hierarchical than before, which makes discussion on previously taboo topics – like money – easier than in the past. ‘Softer issues’ more complex Increasingly families are also coming to realise that capital preservationis the easy part of managing wealth. Far more complex are the ‘softer issues’.These include succession planning, family leadership and engaging the next generation. “Families realise that instead of the leadership baton simply being passed on to the eldest son, family leadership should be about meritocracy and that training is essential,” says Fleming. While South Africa is home to many families that span four, five, six generations or more, the local offices of Stonehage Fleming also provide support to families who may have come into money more recently. “These can include local business people, as well as sports stars and other talented individuals,” says Johan van Zyl, CEO of the local office. “While the wealth creator may say that they do not want to rule from the grave, having a ‘constitution’ or set of rules – that goes beyond a will – forthe management of your wealth can help to prevent division in families.”The Mandela family could perhaps attest to this. 该文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com

2019年2月资产管理月度简报 今年伊始，股市一路高歌猛进 摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数（MSCI）在短短两个月内上涨了11.1%，主要受美国标准普尔500指数上涨11.4%的推动。中国，一个近年来的股灾区，大涨了18.4%（上证综指）。即使是增长缓慢的欧元区也上涨了9.4%，尤其是在欧元区的主要驱动体德国；甚至连欧洲的落后者意大利，其股票指数也上涨了11.9%。然而，经合组织（OECD）已经降低了对2019年全球GDP增长和贸易的预期。制造业也正在放缓增速（见下图）。英国和欧盟在脱欧问题上仍处于僵局。为什么投资者却如此乐观？分析师指出，各国央行最近都采取了谨慎态度：美联储已停止上调基准利率，并减少了美国国债的持有量；欧洲央行也推迟了削减刺激的计划。在中国，政府鼓励银行增加放贷，以应对经济放缓。但这些政策是对经济增长负面前景的回应，也是对企业利润的负面回应，而后者本应支撑起股市的表现。 股市复苏的定论尚为时过早 到目前为止，工业、房地产和能源是2019年美国股市最强劲的板块，都属于周期类股。数码信息化的蓬勃令信息科技（IT）板块在2018年末达到峰值，上涨了14%，这表明之前从11月中旬到圣诞节的抛售有些过头了。标准普尔500指数已经从12月24日的中间低点上涨了近20%，但我们仍不愿重返市场。看看下面的图表就知道原因了。美国股市再次突破200日移动均线，虽是一个好势头，但它刚巧处于前三次未能成功反弹的区间顶部。根据我们的投资模型，我们在2月14日确实收到了买入的信号。该指数目前仅上涨1.9%，比我们10月25日的销售点高出3.4%。只有看到该指数显著突破过去未能成功反弹的高点，我们才能确信新一轮牛市的到来。标普500指数目前的点位，较9月份的高点低了7.7%，这也是一个潜在的阻力位，说明短期内上行空间有限。 中国和美国即将达成贸易协定 特朗普总统对无限期推迟中国对美出口关税提高25%的谈判进展，感到欢欣鼓舞；只是最终协议的细节尚未明朗。让我们设想一处“特朗普团队”可能没有考虑到的方面：中国已将对美巨额贸易顺差投资于1.3万亿美元的美国国债；随着贸易顺差的下降，中国对美元的外汇顺差会减少，随之购买美国国债的“胃口”会缩小。与此同时，特朗普的减税政策和美国经济增长放缓，意味着美国的预算赤字不断上升，由此美国国债的发行会增多。 我们的投资策略 诚如读者所知，雷梭勒家族办公室不会根据经济、行业或公司分析结果进行市场预测。我们只按照市场趋势和其它指标判断市场走势。在资产管理方面，我们遵循以下四个原则： 确定并遵循利好趋势（追逐风险）； 下跌时迅速杀跌（规避风险）； 确认触底时再次建仓(再次追逐风险);利用行业、国家和区域指数跟踪基金和一篮子组合进行分散投资, 尽量降低投资一种股票或债券的风险。我们采用价格-概率数学建模法判断市场是否显现利好或下跌趋势，是否走强或走弱，是否有可能在下一个周期（对我们而言是一个月）继续利好或下跌行情，以此控制“摩擦性”交易成本。雷梭勒家族办公室不随股市走势而决定是否投资，尤其是在股市从触底反弹之时。 小结与展望 除了上证综指之外，2019年迄今为止表现最好的国家股指是：阿根廷(+ 16.7%)、土耳其（+13.3%）和埃及(+13.3%)，都是以美元计价的，而没有一个国家的政治或经济环境具备足够的吸引力。由于上述原因，我们将保持100%的现金，直到新的上升趋势得以确认。 James Cunningham Chief Investment Officer 首席投资官 La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA 瑞士雷梭勒家族办公 Feburary 28th, 2019 2019年2月28日 English Version Equities start the year on a roll The MSCI World global index is up +11.1% in just two months, driven mostly by the American S&P 500 index’ gain of +11.4%. China, a loser over recent years, is up +18.4% (Shanghai). Even the Euro area has gained + 9.4%, despite slowing growth, especially in its main economic driver, Germany. Even Italy, Europe’s laggard, has seen its stock index rise + 11.9%. Yet the OECD has reduced its estimates of global GDP growth as well as for trade for 2019. Manufacturing is slowing (see chart below). Britain and the EU are still at an impasse over Brexit. Why the investor optimism? Analysts point to central banks’ newly cautious attitude: the US Federal Reserve has stopped raising its benchmark interestrates and reducing its stock of Treasury bonds; the European Central Bank has postponed cutting its stimulus. In China, the government has encouraged banks to lend more to counter a slowing economy. But these policies are a response to a negative outlook for growth and therefore for the corporate profits that should underpin stock markets’ performance. The recovery in stocks looks overstretched Industrials, Real Estate and Energy are the strongest sectors in American stocks thus far in 2019, all cyclicals. IT, hit in late 2018, is up 14% thanks to ongoing digitalization. That suggests that the prior sell-off from mid-November through Christmas was overdone. The S&P 500 has risen by nearly 20% from its December 24th interim low, and yet we are reluctant to reenter the market. A glance at the chart below shows why. The US market is again above its 200-day moving average, a positive indicator, but it is right in the zone of the previous three failed rally tops. We did have a buy signal according to our model on February 14th. The index is now only 1.9% higher, and 3.4% above our selling point on October 25th. We need to see the index decisively above the old failed rally highs to have confidence in a new bull run. At its current level, the S&P is 7.7% below the old September high, also a potential resistance level: near-term,upside is limited. China and America are nearer to a trade agreement President Trump is encouraged enough by progress in negotiations to postpone indefinitely a 25% increase in tariffs on Chinese exports to the US. Just what the eventual agreement will be in detail is still unclear. Consider one aspect that “Team Trump” may not have considered: China has invested its massive trade surpluses with America in $1.3 trillion of US Treasury bonds. As that trade surplus falls, so will China’s surplus dollars, and with it its appetite for Treasuries. Meanwhile, Trump’s tax cuts and slowing US growth point to a rising US budget deficit and therefore an increase in the issuance of Treasury bonds. Our Policy As our readers know, La Soleille does not make predictions based on economic, industry or company analysis. We act on market trends and other technical signals alone. In asset management we follow four principles: Identify and follow positive trends (risk on); Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off); Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on); Diversify by using sector, national and regional index-tracking funds and baskets, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bond; We use mathematical modeling of prices and probabilities to determine if a trend is positive or negative, strengthening or weakening, and likely or not to continue for the next period (which for us is one month, to control trading cost “friction”). La Soleille is contrarian at the trend change, particularly when a downtrend turns positive. Summary and Outlook After Shanghai, the best national stock index performances thus far in 2019 are Argentina (+ 16.7%), Turkey (+ 13.3%), and Egypt (+13.3%), all in US dollars, none of which have an attractive political or economic environment. For reasons indicated above, we remain 100% in cash until the new uptrend is confirmed. James CunninghamChief Investment OfficerLa Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SAFeburary 28th, 2019 该文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com

超级富豪的得力助手 家族办公室已成金融大鳄 侯赛因-赛义德，一位当地CNBC电视台的主播，在台上逐一欢迎与会者参加迪拜的家族办公室（fos）的会议。在场者包括亿万富翁及其后代，顾问们和资金管理人员，以及少数具有投资意识的蓝血贵族，包括南斯拉夫的迈克尔王子。“我们认为这个房间可能有超过2万亿美元的代表，”赛义德先生说，“但当然没有办法探知详情。” 现在，标记体面自尊的亿万富翁，拥有蓬勃发展的家族办公室已经成为必要标志。家族办公室的角色包括管理家庭的财富，管理他们的资产以及其他服务，从世俗（付账单）到琐事（继任人的传承计划）。最大的公司已成为交易强国，能够与全球银行和私募股权公司就重大交易进行竞争。但根据定义，它们也是为私人所有——因此很少被人知晓。“我们是大多数人从未听说过的投资领域中最重要的部分，”一位高管表示。 家族办公室的根源在于监管美国19世纪豪强贵族们财产的组织，如J.P. Morgan（摩根）和John D. Rockefeller（洛克菲勒）。数百人的规模已经运作了至少三代。一群人为拥有数百名成员的大家庭提供服务——像欧尚超市所有者，法国的Mulliez（穆里耶兹）家族，其家族办公室的工作者超过600人。然而，多数家族办公室是近年才建起的。在由UBS（瑞银集团）和Campden Wealth于9月最新出版的《年度全球家族办公室报告》所调查的311个家族办公室中，超过三分之二的家庭办公室是在2000年之后建立的，超过一半的家族办公室服务于各家族第一代掌门人的财富。 设立在亲属内部： 这一激增反映了全球亿万富翁的数量增长和他们控制的财富总量，目前估计接近9万亿美元。没人知道家族办公室在此之中持有多少，但合理的猜测是3~4万亿美元。有几个因素可以解释增长。第一个是“流动性事件”的增加：创始人或其继承人从经营业务中获利，例如通过首次公开募股，以及产生需要管理的现金池。另一个是时尚：特别是来自亚洲的新兴亿万富翁越来越觉得除了自立门户，他们是无法成为某个俱乐部的顶级会员。财富管理顾问菲利普•马科维奇（Philip Marcovici）表示，第三个因素是对第三方资金经理的幻想破灭，由于不透明和滥用费用的丑闻，以及银行推销自己的昂贵产品或合作伙伴，以换取回扣。 “感觉就是如果你希望工作做得好，你必须把它设立在家族内部(in-house)，并自有运营。” 家族办公室（fo）的定义圆滑。一些定位宽松的、或并无任何家族关系的投资公司通过贴上该标签而标榜自身。一些大型的，更具吸引力的家族办公室，则拒绝这类标榜，而更喜欢以低调行事的 "私人投资公司”，“资本合伙关系”等自诩。各朝办各朝的事，一如古谚讲：“当你看到一个家族办公室时，你仅仅见识到了一个而已。”但正因如此，大多数的家族办公室（fo）都属于上述两种类别中的一个。最纯粹的形式是“单一家族办公室”（sfo），通常从家族企业萌芽并持续为一个家庭服务。平均而言，它将有十几名员工。按照其运行成本来计算，这只对拥有1亿至1.5亿美元资产的家族才有意义。Campden的研究负责人Rebecca Gooch估计约有5,300个单一家族办公室，其中的四分之三位于北美或欧洲。 相比之下，“多家族办公室”（mfos）所服务的不止一个主人。大多数都管理着5个左右家族的事务。最大的服务于数百个家族。合并成本使得其服务的家族只需2500万美元门槛即可。一些mfos在开始时只是sfos，后来再开设机构以寻求增长。其他的mfos则由第三方资金经理肇始，为多客户建立其业务。合并创造了混合驱动。总部位于伦敦的Stonehage Fleming成立于2014年，由当时的英国弗莱明家族办公室（詹姆斯-邦德007故事的创始人伊恩弗莱明的亲戚）与服务逃脱彼时种族隔离政权的南非家庭的信托公司合并。它们的客户列表上有大约250个家族 有些mfos能够扮演针对某一家族的单一家族办公室角色，而其他mfos则只能兼职服务于其他的家族。Sandaire是另一家总部位于伦敦的多家族办公室，其起源自销售英国保险公司Provincial的产品，为其前业主Scotts家族和其他31个家族管理资金。“其中一些家族已有了自己的家族办公室处理很多事务，但仍选择Sandaire家族办公室用于管理更需要有专业知识的特定领域，例如股票和债券的资产配置，”其创始人亚历克斯·斯科特先生说到（以及詹姆斯·斯科特爵士的曾孙，Provincial保险公司的创始人）。 新购得的爵位： 这些多样性意味着家族办公室的大小各不同。平均每一家监管5亿至10亿美元。最大的，主要是单一家族办公室（sfos），管理的规模多许多。乔治-索罗斯家族办公室管理着250亿美元。其他巨头包括：凯悦酒店集团背后、由家族经营的普利兹克（Pritzker）集团；和拥有JAB咖啡集团的德国雷曼家族（Reimann），其持有包括Keurig（绿山咖啡）、Dr Pepper（胡椒博士汽水）在内的其他食品和饮料品牌——尽管他们都希望将自己视为多元化的投资公司，并避开家族办公室的标签。最大型的家族办公室除了管理资金（或选择外部的经理去这样做）之外，还有数百名员工并参与了各种令人眼花缭乱的业务。这可能包括税务和法律服务，合规，网络安全和监控发票（游艇公司就因滥收费用而臭名昭著，因为他们认为账单不会受到严格审查）。 有些还提供更个性化的“礼宾”服务，例如安排旅行（确保豪华轿车储存正确的饮料），帮助处理敏感的家庭问题，例如结婚（婚前协议）或离婚，或准备下一代加班。有些人也帮助家庭的慈善事业，尽管大多数亿万富翁都有各种独立的慈善基金会来协调他们的捐赠。 Stonehage Fleming家族办公室的老板Giuseppe Ciucci说：在行业的最高端，我们的目标是随时为大家族们提供任何他们所需要的东西。家族办公室的角色已经发展成为一个值得信赖的顾问，从解决投资难题到儿童成长脱轨。英国文化评论家彼得-约克（Peter York）将家族办公室描述为“超级富豪的超级帮助”。然而，这些金融管家并未停留在过去。对于一些人而言，保护财富比增长财富更重要。当美国投资者大卫•提斯（David Tice）在迪拜的会议上说“你们这些人已经很富有了，人生这样一次已足够”，会场很多人点头同意。但仍有不少人愿意投身最前沿的新兴金融。例如，据报道，普利米克斯（Pritzkers）和比尔-盖茨（Bill Gates）的家族办公室一直热衷于购买最具风险的“股权”部分抵押贷款债务（一种证券化的债务形式）。家族办公室还覆盖电子竞技等多元领域。在迪拜的研讨会中，最大的吸引力来自区块链初创公司与智能合约程序。有些人不怕逆流而上。由活动组织者Anthony Ritossa经营的办公室，其家族资金来自克罗地亚Istrian半岛的橄榄树林，据说在与次级抵押贷款和欧洲主权债务相关的逆向赌注方面做得很好。有争议的投资的灵活性是可能的，因为在许多情况下，家族办公室既不回答外部投资者，也不回应监管机构。例如，在美国，仅为家庭或同事管理资金的人免于接受披露，或接受对于投资顾问的其他监管规则。拥有大笔资金且思想开明的投资者已经帮助改变了企业并购的世界，因为家族办公室们开始尝试在大宗股份或整个公司上进行投资。私募股权在家族办公室的投资组合中的份额也稳步上升。它现在仅占平均约一半水平的五分之一份额（见图3）。根据研究公司PitchBook的数据，2016年完成的1000亿美元交易是2011年投资额的四倍。今年早些时候，彭博社称此次购买是“私募股权的强化”。Campden最近的另一份报告得出结论，家族办公室对私募股权的分配 - 包括直接投资和通过基金的投资 - 在2017年至2019年间可能会增加四分之三。 该文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com

How the 0.001% invest 十万分之一的人群怎样投资 Investing and the super-rich 投资与超高净值人群 Think of the upper echelons of the money-management business, and the image that springs to mind is of fusty private banks in Geneva or London’s Mayfair, with marble lobbies and fake country-house meeting-rooms designed to make their super-rich clients feel at home. But that picture is out of date. A more accurate one would feature hundreds of glassy private offices in California and Singapore that invest in Canadian bonds, European property and Chinese startups—and whose gilded patrons are sleepwalking into a political storm. 想象一下财富管理业务的最高层：我们幻想他们应该端坐在日内瓦或伦敦梅菲尔的私人银行里，置身于大理石厅堂和乡村风格的会议室之中，旨在让其所服务的超级富豪们宾至如归。但这样的印象已经过时了，当下的场景是：位于加利福尼亚和新加坡的数百家玻璃幕墙的私人办公室里，投资向加拿大债券、欧洲房地产和中国的创业公司——背后镀金的老板们则在一场场政治风暴中穿梭。 Global finance is being transformed as billionaires get richer and cut out the middlemen by creating their own “family offices”, personal investment firms that roam global markets looking for opportunities. Largely unnoticed, family offices have become a force in investing, with up to $4trn of assets—more than hedge funds and equivalent to 6% of the value of the world’s stockmarkets. As they grow even bigger in an era of populism, family offices are destined to face uncomfortable questions about how they concentrate power and feed inequality. 全球金融正在转变，因为亿万富翁们变得更加富裕，并通过创建自己的“家族办公室”来切断中间商，这些个人投资公司漫游在全球市场内寻求机会。家族办公室虽还未受到广泛关注，却已成为投资的中坚力量，投资总额高达4万亿美元，超过对冲基金，等同于全球股票市场价值的6％。但是，伴随当下民族主义浪潮日渐壮大的家族办公室，却注定无法回避如何集中权力、处理财富不均这样的尴尬难题。 The concept is hardly new; John D. Rockefeller set up his family office in 1882. But the number has exploded this century. Somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 are based in America and Europe and in Asian hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong. Though their main task is to manage financial assets, the biggest offices, some with hundreds of staff, undertake all sorts of other chores, from tax and legal work to acting as high-powered butlers who book jets and pamper pets. “家族办公室”的概念并不新鲜；约翰·D·洛克菲勒早在1882年已成立他的家族办公室。但这个数字在本世纪爆发了：介于5,000到10,000个之间的家族办公室，广泛分布于美国、欧洲以及亚洲的中心（如新加坡和香港）。虽然其主要任务是管理金融资产，但在拥有数百名员工的最大型家族办公室里事务可谓极其繁多：从税务到法务，甚至是预订私人飞机和照顾萌宠的高级管家。 The costs of bringing such expertise in-mansion means that they generally make sense only for those worth over $100m, the top 0.001% of the global pile. Asian tycoons such as Jack Ma of Alibaba have created their own fiefs. The largest Western family offices, such as the one set up by George Soros, an investor and philanthropist, oversee tens of billions and are as muscular as Wall Street firms, competing with banks and private-equity groups to buy whole companies. 组建这种专家团队的成本，通常只对那些价值超过1亿美元的客户才有意义，这里讲的是全球最高净值的0.001％人群。像阿里巴巴的马云这样的亚洲大亨早已创建了自己的封地。最大的西方家族办公室，例如投资者和慈善家乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）所设立的家族办公室管理着数百亿美元，已经与彪悍的华尔街公司无异，可与银行和私募股权集团分庭抗礼，去收购大公司。 Every investment boom reflects the society that spawned it. The humble mutual fund came of age in the 1970s after two decades of middle-class prosperity in America. The rise of family offices reflects soaring inequality. Since 1980 the share of the world’s wealth owned by the top 0.01% has risen from 3% to 8%. As the founders of family firms receive dividends or the proceeds of initial public offerings, they usually redeploy the cash. But since the financial crisis there has been a loss of faith in external money managers. Rich clients have taken a closer look at private banks’ high fees and murky incentives, and balked. 每一次投资热潮都反映了催生它的社会现状。在美国经历了20年的中产阶级繁荣之后，1970年代诞生了低调的共同基金。家族办公室的崛起反映了财富不均现象的飙升。自1980年以来，由0.01％的最高净值人群所拥有的世界财富份额已从3％上升到8％。由于家族企业的创始人获得股息或首次公开募股的收益，他们通常会重新部署现金。但经过金融危机，他们对外部的理财经理的信心已丧失殆尽。在高额的私人银行费用和不显著的激励措施之下，这些富人们踌躇不前。 These trends are unlikely to fade, as our Briefing explains. The number of billionaires is still growing—199 newbies made the grade last year. In the emerging world older entrepreneurs who created firms in the boom years after 1990 are preparing to cash out, while in America and China younger tech entrepreneurs may soon float their companies, releasing a new wave of cash to reinvest. Family offices’ weight in the financial system, therefore, looks likely to rise further. As it does, the objections to them will rise exponentially. The most obvious of these is the least convincing—that family offices have created inequality. They are a consequence, not its cause. Nonetheless, there are concerns—and one in particular that is worth worrying about. 正如我们的简报所解释，这些趋势不太可能消退。亿万富翁的数量仍在增长——去年一年世界新增了199位亿万富翁。在新兴世界，1990年以后繁荣时期创建公司的老企业家们正在准备兑现，而在美国和中国，年轻的科技界企业家的公司市值可能会很快浮升，释放出新的现金再投资。因此，家族办公室在金融系统中的重要性可能会进一步地提高。事实上，对家族办公室的反对声也必将甚嚣尘上。最大的反对声其实并不具说服力：他们说家族办公室造成了贫富不均。但这只是结果，而非成因。尽管如此，家族办公室还是存在着一些隐忧问题，最突出的如下： The first is that family offices could endanger the stability of the financial system. Combining very rich people, opacity and markets can be explosive. ltcm, a $100bn hedge fund backed by the super-rich, blew up in 1998, almost bringing down Wall Street. Scores of wealthy people fell for a Ponzi scheme run by Bernie Madoff that collapsed in 2008. Still, as things stand family offices do not look like the next disaster waiting to happen. They have debt equivalent to 17% of their assets, making them among the least leveraged participants in global markets. On balance, they may even be a stabilising influence. Their funds are usually deployed for decades, making them far less vulnerable to panics than banks and many hedge funds. 首先，家族办公室有可能危及金融体系的稳定性。极端富裕人群资产的体量与不透明程度几乎是爆炸性的。Itcm，这家由超级富豪支持的1000亿美元对冲基金，于1998年爆发，几乎压垮了华尔街。 2008年，伯尼·马多夫（Bernie Madoff）经营的庞氏骗局让无数富豪陷入绝境。这些事件倒还没有使家族办公室看起来如同下一场大灾难。家族办公室的债务占其资产的17％，使其成为全球市场中杠杆率最低的参与者。总的来说，家族办公室甚至可能是一股稳定的影响力。他们的资金部署周期长则数十年，比起银行和许多对冲基金更不容易受到恐慌。 The second worry is that family offices could magnify the power of the wealthy over the economy. This is possible: were Bill Gates to invest exclusively in Turkey, he would own 65% of its stockmarket. But the aim is usually to diversify risk, not concentrate power, by taking capital from the original family business and putting it into a widely spread portfolio. The family-office industry is less concentrated than mainstream asset management, which a few firms such as BlackRock dominate. Compared with most fund managers, family offices have welcome habits, including a longer-term horizon and an appetite for startups. 第二个担忧是家族办公室可以放大富人对经济的影响力。这是可能的：如果比尔-盖茨只在土耳其投资，那他将拥有65％的股票市场。但富人们的初衷是：通过原始家族企业获取资金，将其投入多样化的投资组合来分散风险，而不是集中权力。家族办公室投资的行业，其集中程度低于主流资产管理机构，如贝莱德（Black Rock）这样的业内大佬。与大多数基金经理相比，家族办公室的包容性更广，更具长期战略眼光，也更愿意投资创业公司。 It is the third danger that has most bite: that family offices might have privileged access to information, deals and tax schemes, allowing them to outperform ordinary investors. So far there is little evidence for this. The average family office returned 16% in 2017 and 7% in 2016, according to Campden Wealth, a research firm, slightly lagging behind world stockmarkets. Nonetheless, tycoons are well connected. Family offices are becoming more complex—a third have at least two branches—making tax wheezes easier. Hungry brokers and banks are rolling out the red carpet and pitching deals with unlisted firms that are not available to ordinary investors. If all this did lead to an entrenched, unfair advantage, the effect, when compounded over decades, would make wealth inequality disastrously worse. 第三个也是最致命的危险：家族办公室可能有特权获取内幕信息，如交易和税收计划，使他们能够胜过普通投资者。到目前为止，没有太多例证可以证实这一说法。根据研究公司Campden Wealth的数据，2017年平均家族办公室的回报率为16％，2016年为7％，略低于世界股票市场。尽管如此，大亨巨富们之间关系密切。家族办公室也变得越来越复杂——为了使处理税务更容易，三分之一的家族办公室至少设两个分支机构。如饥似渴的经纪人和银行向那些普通投资者无法获知的非上市公司抛出橄榄枝，完成内幕交易。倘若确实因此导致了根深蒂固的不公平优势，那么这种影响在数十年的恶化中，会灾难性地加剧财富不平等。 The rich discover do-it-yourself The answer is vigilance and light. Most regulators, treasuries and tax authorities are beginners when it comes to dealing with family offices, but they need to ensure that rules on insider trading, the equal servicing of ...