传承宝典丨美国通胀已达顶峰?
传承宝典｜美国通胀已达顶峰? 导读： 市场整体仍然聚焦于全球通胀趋势及其对未来利率和经济增长的影响。刚过去的这个夏天，美国通胀持续而顽固，这成为了投资者焦虑的主要原因。盖然性权衡显示，未来6-12个月更有可能表现为低通胀。 本文内容由雷梭勒家族办公室根据Stonehage Fleming文章编译整理，版权归原作者所有。 经济滞后的一个很好的指标就是通胀。有关通胀的报导被你听到时就已是过时的消息，因为它告诉的只不过是已经发生的事。2021年，美联储还愿意对价格压力的这种马后炮式的评定做一些前瞻性点评，说当时通胀上扬是“暂时性的”。这说明在当时高增长高通胀的情况下政策仍然非常宽松。至2021年末，通胀居高不下，证明美联储在该问题上过于轻率，于是他们不得不进行急剧回调。最近几个月的措施极为不同，反映出当局更关注将抑制通胀落到实处。 我们在上个季度认为，"种种迹象表明，许多新冠疫情导致的通胀因素，如商品需求的上升和供应链的中断，都得到了很大的改善"。刚过去的夏季尽管有一些高得惊人的数据，但有证据表明这个说法仍然成立。汽油价格自6月中旬以来下降了约25%，就有利于通胀回落（见图表），但预计未来几个月通胀消退的主要原因是去年供应链中断的问题得到了解决。 所有证据表明，航运、批发商的交货时间、库存水平和生产者的投入价格都有很大的改善。在某些情况下，供应链压力的指标已经恢复到疫情之前的标准。 六月以来汽油价格下跌抑制了通胀 数据来源: Bloomberg, 2022年9月30日 为何通胀依然如此之高？ 通胀率仍然居高不下的原因是，价格需要时间调整，尤其是从高位调整会更久。这里的一个关键因素是批发和零售市场的利润率。去年的 “瓶颈经济”导致一些需求大于供给的行业的总体标价大幅上扬。美国的汽车行业就是一个很好的例子。装配线上关键部件的短缺导致汽车经销商的利润率大幅提升，对消费者而言，价格的膨胀甚至超过了供给方投入成本的增加。 利润率最终会恢复到更为正常的水平，这将成为通胀的阻力。美联储副主席莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）赞同这一观点，他说：“降低目前高涨的利润率可以为减少消费品的通胀压力做出重要贡献”（数据来源：美联储副主席莱尔·布雷纳德的演讲，《让通胀降下来》，2022年9月7日）。 其他因素也是关键，包括租金通胀有多快消退以及能源价格的下跌是否持续。然而，我们进行盖然性权衡评估后仍然认为，未来6-12个月的通胀率将低于过去6-12个月。因此，应该不太会出现20世纪70年代那样的通胀螺旋式上升的情况。 免责声明：本篇文章仅为提供信息之用。任何第三方所表达的意见和观点仅供参考，如有变化，恕不另行通知。虽然我们尽力确保所提供的信息是准确和最新的，但由于任何变化，一些信息在未来可能会变得不准确。 所有投资都有资本损失的风险。投资标的价值可能上下波动，您可能无法收回最初投资的全部价值。汇率变化可能导致投资价值起伏。此处信息不构成建议或投资研究，不应依赖这些信息来进行交易或作出任何投资决定。 Original English Text Has Inflation Finally Peaked in the US？ Balance of probabilities points towards lower inflation in the next 6-12 months Broad market focus remains on global inflationary trends and their impact on the future path of interest rates and growth. The stubborn persistence of US inflation has been a primary source of investor anxiety over the summer months. Inflation is a good example of a lagging economic indicator. By the time it is reported it is already old news, telling us only what has already happened. In 2021, the Federal Reserve were willing to add some forward looking commentary to this rear-view mirror assessment of price pressures, describing the inflationary surge at the time as transitory. This justified remaining extremely accommodative in their policy stance, despite strong economic growth and high inflation. By the end of last year they were forced to back pedal in dramatic fashion, as inflation trends proved them far too cavalier on the issue. The approach taken in recent months has been quite different - it is a case of show me dont tell me inflation is falling. We argued last quarter that "the signs suggest many pandemic-related inflationary factors such as elevated demand for goods and supply chain disruption are much improved". Despite some surprisingly high readings over the summer, this statement continues to be backed by the evidence. A c.25% fall in gasoline prices since the middle of June has helped (see chart), but the main reason to expect subsiding inflation in the months to come is the resolution to last years supply chain disruption. All the evidence points to a considerable improvement in shipping, delivery times for wholesalers, inventory levels and producer input prices. In some cases, indicators of supply chain stress are back to pre-Covid norms. Falling gasoline prices since June are dis-inflationary Source: Bloomberg, 30 September 2022 Why is inflation still so high? The reason inflation is still so high is because it takes time for prices to adjust, particularly from very high levels. A critical factor here is gross margins in the wholesale and retail market. Last years bottleneck economy resulted in a significant increase in aggregate mark ups in industries where demand outstripped supply. The US auto industry is a good example. Shortages in key components on the assembly line resulted in a huge widening in auto dealers margins, inflating prices for the consumer even more than the rise in input costs would imply. Ultimately, margins have to revert to more normal levels, which will act as a headwind to inflation. Lael Brainard, Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve, shares this view, stating "a reduction in currently elevated margins could make an important contribution to reduced inflation pressures in consumer goods" (Source: Federal Reserve, Speech by Vice Chair Lael Brainard, "Bringing Inflation Down", 07 September 2022). Other factors will also be key, including how quickly rent inflation subsides and whether the decline in energy prices is sustained. However, our assessment of the balance of probabilities continues to point to lower inflation in the next 6-12 months than the past 6-12 months. Expectations of a 1970s inflationary spiral should look less realistic as a result. Disclaimer: This article has been prepared for information only. The opinions and views expressed on any third party are for information purposes only, and are subject to change without notice. Whilst every effort is made to ensure that the information provided is accurate and up to date, some of the information may be rendered inaccurate in the future due to any changes. All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up or down. We do not intend for this information to constitute advice or investment research and it should not be relied on as such to enter into a transaction or for any investment decision. 本文转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com
瑞士工艺：手工纺织
瑞士工艺：手工纺织 瑞士手工艺与挑战 “唧唧复唧唧，木兰当户织。”《木兰辞》的开篇名句就是在模拟织布机纺织时发出的声音。手工纺织的发明可以追溯到公元前6000年的西亚，比纺纱稍晚出现，现已流传数个世纪。瑞士博采多元文化之长且注重环保，因此长期以来都非常喜爱这一返璞归真的艺术形式。手工纺织是一种非常古老且主要的纺织品生产方式。在古代，手工纺织是农村地区重要的收入来源，在世界范围内被广泛采用。它对基础设施的要求不高，也不依赖农作季节，因此成为一项受欢迎的谋生方式，尤其是它能够帮助女性实现经济上的独立自由。 然而，随着工业化生产的纺织品大量涌入市场，瑞士传统工艺的没落也未能幸免。由于工业化的手工艺品（大多来自亚洲）以较低的价格进入市场，压制了传统手工艺品市场的发展，瑞士的许多手工纺织厂因此关闭。传统手工艺有利于多样性和资源可持续利用，可惜却一度处于衰退甚至灭绝的边缘。 千禧年是一个转折点。品质、环保、传统和内涵这几个词自然成为了搜索产品时最受欢迎的标签。为了恢复这项古老的手工艺，瑞士仅存的几家手工纺织基金会开始采取行动。经过现代改良，人们开始重新审视这一项传统遗产。 "我们的产品是有价值的，它们因此被传承"，这句话来自瑞士泰桑达（Tessanda）公司，它是瑞士三大专业手工纺织厂之一，公司员工全部为女性，专业从事手摇纺织机的纺织工作。泰桑达于1928年在Sta.Maria Val Müstair成立，当时是为了给Münstertal的妇女提供一份受人尊敬的工作，并提供公认的专业培训，现在仍然如此。它是为数不多的幸存的手工纺织基金会之一，为年轻人提供专业培训，从而传承手工纺织的古老创意之美。 当地的纺织厂——泰桑达（Tessanda）几台运转中的传统织布机发出 "丝丝 "的声音，几位纺织工专心致志地工作着，一边手抓着梭子推线，一边脚踏在织布机上织着一根又一根的线。纺织的过程几乎没有任何乐趣可言。每根线都由手工编织，工艺精细，每次梭子越过一条线，就需要在木板上推一下，以固定布纹。在织布过程中即使只出现一丁点儿错误，也要把线拆掉，全部的工作就可能需要重新开始。因此织工需要特别地敏捷和小心。 作为一家基金会，泰桑达几十年来一直将专业手工纺织作为一项独立的职业进行保护和发展。它确保了妇女能有一份不错的工作，从而在Val Müstair实现经济独立。泰桑达目前雇用了17名技艺精湛、知识渊博的手工织工和女裁缝。她们在工作中投入了大量的热情和努力，一丝不苟，非常专业。 如今，泰桑达基金会训练有素的织工仍然像九十四年前那样，按照古老的传统，完全用手工制作高品质的纺织品。工厂坚持用木制织布机和手工方式纺织，其中一些木制织布机已经有100多年的历史。同时，工厂专门就如何设计现代化的图案进行培训，使手工纺织对年轻一代更有吸引力。 为了提高人们对珍贵的传统手工纺织工艺的认识，泰桑达根据联邦和州的职业规定，为年轻人提供从头开始学习手工纺织的机会。他们还组织游客参观车间，观摩25台传统织机。参观团一般由熟练的老员工带领。她们先会介绍泰桑达的百年历史，然后向游客解说并展示手工纺织的各个精密的步骤。最后，泰桑达会为游客提供车间互动环节，让他们可以参与织造过程。可以见证这个古老的手工艺基金会的独特精神，以及它在传承本真的同时打破传统设计框架的大胆设想，机会实属难得。 这些提升手工纺织认识的活动，让人们不仅投身于传承这项工艺本身，还致力于传承民间智慧。由于手织不使用任何化石燃料，它作为一种环保的纺织品制造方式得到了越来越多的认可。艺术价值和环境价值的结合，逐渐带来了手工纺织业的复苏。 我们真诚地希望更多的人在读到这篇文章后能认识到传统手工纺织的美，并将它传播开来。雷梭勒家族办公室重视传统手工艺的传承，因此鼓励我们所服务的家庭参与瑞士当地的工作坊活动，帮助传承瑞士的工匠精神。我们非常乐意为我们的家庭客户安排相关的参访和游览，让大家获得手工纺织的第一手体验！ 参考文献 文： Handweberei Tessanda - Sta. Maria Val Müstair. zur Startseite. (n.d.). Retrieved August 26, 2022, from https: //tessanda.ch/ Dahlmer, Z. (2021, June 16). The Swiss culture of craftsmanship. Alpine Hikers. Retrieved August 26, 2022, from https://alpinehikers.com/the-swiss-culture-of-craftsmanship-2/ 图： 所有图片均源于泰桑达官网 Original English Text Swiss Craftsmanship: Hand Weaving Swiss Craftsmanship & Challenges"Click-Clack, Click-Clack, Mulan Weaving". This renowned line from the Ballad of Mulan simulates the sound made by a loom when weaving. Tracing back to 6000BC, hand weaving was invented later than spinning in West Asia and has been passed down for centuries. Switzerland, with its essence of integrated cultural and focus on sustainability, has been fond of this an ultimate form of art for a long time. Hand weaving is one of the oldest and primary textile production methods. In ancient times, hand weaving was widely practiced worldwide as a valuable source of revenue in rural communities. The characteristics of minimum demand in infrastructure and high independence on agricultural seasons make weaving a great living measure, especially for women, assisting them in achieving financial liberty. Unfortunately, industrially produced textiles flooded in the market, and Switzerland was not spared from it. Since industrialized handicrafts entered with a lower price, mostly from Asia, it has extensively suppressed the traditional handicraft market, leading to closedown of many handweaving mills in Switzerland. Sadly, traditional handicrafts, which are beneficial to diversity and the sustainable use of resources, were once hanging on the verge of decline or even extinction. The age of the millennium was a turning point. Fortuitously, quality, sustainability, tradition and meaningfulness have become the most popular tags when searching for products. In order to revive the old craftmanship, the few remaining hand weaving foundations in Switzerland started to take actions. By adapting to modernization, people began to revisit this traditional heritage. “Because our products are valuable, they are inherited”, quoted from Tessanda, one of the three largest professional handweaving mills in Switzerland, composed entirely of women, dedicated to handloom weaving. Tessanda was founded in 1928 in Sta. Maria Val Müstair. The purpose was and still is to offer Münstertal women a respectable job with recognized specialist training. It is one of the few survived hand weaving foundations devotes to passing down the ancient beauty of creativity in hand weaving by offering professional training to young people. Local Weaving workshop - Tessand Several traditional looms in motion emit the sound of "silk" as several weavers focus on the work, pushing threads, grabbing shuttles with their hands, and weaving thread after thread with their feet on the loom. The process of weaving is barely amusing. Each thread is hand-woven with fine craftsmanship, and each shuttle over a line follows by a push on the board to fix the cloth pattern. Even with the slightest mistake in the weaving process, threads would have to be removed, putting all work at risk of starting over. Therefore, weavers need to be agile and extremely careful. For decades, Tessanda has been a foundation that maintains and promotes professional handweaving as an independent profession. It ensures women an attractive job, thereby reaching financial independence in Val Müstair. Tessanda currently employs 17 skillful and knowledgeable hand weavers and seamstresses. They put lots of passion and effort into their work and are meticulous and professional. Like 94 years ago, trained weavers at Tessanda today still weave high-quality textiles fully by hand according to old traditions. The workshop persists in hand weave on wooden looms, some of which are over 100 years old. Meanwhile, specialized training over modernized pattern design are applied to make handweaving more appealing to the young generation. In order to raise awareness of precious traditional handweaving craft, Tessanda offers opportunities for young people to learn hand weaving from scratch in accordance with the federal and canton professional regulations. They also organize workshop tours to visit 25 traditional looms. Adept employees usually lead tours. The tour first introduces the century-old history of the Tessanda, then explains and shows visitors the elaborate steps of hand weaving. In the end, Tessanda offers visitors workshop sessions to participate in the weaving process. It is truly an incredible opportunity to witness the unique spirit of this ancient handicraft foundation, and its bold vision of breaking down traditions in design, while staying true to its heritage. By raising the awareness of handweaving, people devote themselves to passing on not only the craft itself, but also the folk intelligence. As handweaving does not use any fossil fuel, it is becoming more widely recognized as an environmentally benign method of fabric production. The combination of artistic and environmental values gradually triggers a resurgence in the handweaving industry. We sincerely hope that more people perceive and will spread the beauty of traditional hand weaving after reading this article. La Soleille Family office values traditional handicraft heritage, therefore encouraging our families to participate in local Swiss workshops and help to pass on the Swiss artisan spirit. We are is more than willing to organize a tour for our family to get a first-hand experience in the handweaving process! References Text: Handweberei Tessanda - Sta. Maria Val Müstair. zur Startseite. (n.d.). Retrieved August 26, 2022, from https: //tessanda.ch/ Dahlmer, Z. (2021, June 16). The Swiss culture of craftsmanship. Alpine Hikers. Retrieved August 26, 2022, from https://alpinehikers.com/the-swiss-culture-of-craftsmanship-2/ Pictures: All pictures coming from the official website of Tessanda. 本文转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com
暑期给所有孩子们的Offer（二）丨2023艾格隆夏令营
暑期给所有孩子们的Offer（一）丨2023萝实夏令营