《传承宝典》35——Covid-19疫情期间投资：摆脱恐慌进度已完成75%
《传承宝典》35 Covid-19疫情期间投资 摆脱恐慌进度已完成75% 在过去几周内，病毒大肆蔓延，政府管控收紧，一时间，人们很难接受这一冲击。金融市场也是如此。投资会受到大众心理的影响，近期的主旋律恐慌情绪也难免会影响市场。虽然投资的基本原理要求投资者能够摒除恐慌情绪带来的影响，但是更重要的是正确看待市场中的大众心理，认清为何此次情况不同以往。在大萧条期间，问题主要出在美联储身上：紧缩的货币政策在危机期间不断拉升利率，现在回头来看，是万万不该采取的政策。这使得各国货币纷纷脱离金本位，进而造成美元等货币大幅贬值等一系列问题。但是如今，情况截然相反。美联储没有重蹈覆辙，反而成为了解决问题的关键角色。采用战时经济措施，竭尽所能确保资金的流动性，大力扶持经济发展。尽管不能完全避免经济衰退，但是这种方式可以在有利条件下将经济损失控制在一定范围内，并促进经济的复苏。 如今的情况也不同于“信贷紧缩”后的经济衰退。此前的问题在于银行业系统缺陷导致的资金流动性危机，这一漏洞已在危机后被修复。相比之下，如今的情况是人类的健康和生命受到威胁，且政府和央行的应对措施正确而果断，在紧缺领域投入大量资金以确保流动性，反应速度之快也是前所未有。相比几周之前，我们现在更加了解如何检测确诊，检测能力也有所提升，掌握了几种可能抑制病毒的药物，甚至还有几只疫苗也有望带来曙光。我们还发现，保持社交距离能够有效控制感染几率，如果第二波疫情高峰来临，市场和政府能够准确认清风险，合理制定应对方案。正是因为我们掌握了更多信息、更加全面地了解风险，所以最恐慌的时刻已经过去。通过衡量资本市场的情况，由于疫情导致的恐慌之路我们已走完3/4的路程。在大众情绪触底后，投资者应该将目光转向长远，而非紧盯着短时间内的经济展望。确实，经济的复苏会有一个终点/起点，但是截至今年年底的全球经济走势非常有可能仍是积极乐观的。历史告诉我们，经济衰退时往往是投资的好时机，而非撤资（恐慌的人往往想要撤资）。对于我们来说，目前的市场并非可以任意“买买买”，而是需要积极挑选，对高质量领域进行投资，谨慎决策，全面估值。 Howard Marks（美国橡树资本创始人）曾经说过：“你无法预测未来，却可以为未来做好准备”。同样，我们很难准确预测病毒和经济的未来走向，但是我们现在就可以投资自己，手握优质资产，为未来做好准备。 Original English Texts Investing during Covid-19 - we are 75% through the fear There is no good reason to believe that history will repeat itself The fear driving markets since February is due to a kind of dread that history will repeat itself. Investors worry that we are in the depth of a recession to rival the Great Depression or the kind of downturn that followed the Global Financial Crisis. But we believe circumstances are very different this time and that there are some signs most of the extreme fear may well be behind us. Faced with the coronavirus pandemic and the very hard measures taken by governments to control its spread, we have all suffered a terrible shock over the past weeks. Financial markets have too. As sentiment plays an important role in investing, it is unsurprising that fear has recently been the major driver of markets. Although investing on fundamental principles requires a cutting-out of noise created by the pervading panic, it is important to try to gauge market sentiment and establish why things might be different this time.During the Great Depression, the US Federal Reserve was actually the major problem. It employed a tight monetary policy, raising interest rates throughout the crisis, which, with hindsight, was exactly the wrong thing to do. With the gold standard at the time there was a huge flight to gold, which caused the collapse of the dollar and many other issues besides. Currently, the opposite is true. Rather than being the problem, the Fed today is a major part of the solution. Having adopted a wartime footing, it is pledging to do all it can to ensure liquidity and prop up the economy. Although a recession cannot be avoided altogether, the approach might, with a fair wind, limit the damage and support a recovery.Fears that today’s situation shares similarities with the recession that followed the Credit Crunch also seem misplaced. The deep problems then were due to a liquidity crisis created by a flawed banking system, which has since been reformed. Today, in contrast to previous crises, because it is about human health and life, the responses from governments and central banks have been incredible, making huge amounts of liquidity available where it is needed, at an unprecedented speed. Compared to a few weeks ago we now have more information about better diagnostic testing, more testing capacity, potential anti-viral drugs and a number of vaccine results holding some promise. We now also know that social distancing measures are effective in flattening the infection rate. We also know that if a second wave occurs, the market and authorities are pretty well informed of the risks we face and are in a better position to consider clearly how to manage the situation. It is largely due to this increase in information and a greater understanding of the risks that the worst of the fear, it seems, may be over. Our own capital market measures indicate that we are around three quarters of the way through the worst fears associated with the pandemic.Assuming that sentiment has found its floor, investors should keep their eye on the horizon rather than the immediate economic outlook. Although there may be a stop/start period in getting economies going again, we think the direction of travel for the global economy towards the end of the year may well be in a positive direction. Historically recessionary periods have proven to be good times to invest, not to disinvest (as those who are fearful may wish to do). For us, the current environment is not one of buying the so-called market. Rather it is an environment of very active stock selection, selecting only high quality businesses and being very careful with your choices and considerate with valuation. I am reminded of Howard Marks( Founder of Oaktree Capital Management）’s quote: “You cannot predict, but you can prepare.” Not many of us can foretell exactly what will happen with the issues related to the virus and the economy but we believe we should be invested and can prepare by owning the right quality businesses. 该文章为搜瑞士网站原创，部分图片摘引自网络媒体的公开资源，如需转载，敬请注明出处。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com
瑞士小记者 疫情之下的瑞士学校
瑞士小记者 疫情之下的瑞士学校 本篇文章是来自瑞士艾格隆学校10年级的Fiona同学第二次投稿。她用亲身感受，第一视角为我们带来疫情爆发过程中，瑞士艾格隆学校所采取的防疫措施。 对抗疫情的这场无声的战役在中国渐渐收场，在国外，与新冠肺炎的对抗也渐入尾声。中国的学生，上班族开始返校，复工。同样在瑞士，放松防疫措施的第一步开始施行：理发店，五金店，园艺店，理疗，美容纹身等店开门迎客。在这样一个时段，相信大家也好奇，国外学校对于COVID-19的措施对比国内有什么不同？作为一名瑞士艾格隆的学生，不如让我来带大家回顾一下远在欧洲瑞士的艾格隆学校，在这段时间采取了如何的措施。早在2020年春节期间新冠肺炎彻底爆发开始，中国就采取全面措施，封城湖北武汉，及时控制住病情散播。与此同时，远在海外的我们也时时刻刻关心着疫情状况，学校也提起高度警惕。更是在春假之时，让无法回归祖国的中国学生留在相对安全的瑞士，组织很多本应该享受假期的志愿者老师，为我们安排了很多有趣的各种户外活动，让我们愉快消遣了那个假期。 就在一个月前的复活节假期，学校本计划再次组织那些由于祖国正处于危险状态的无法回国的各国学生待在学校度过假期，然而已广泛扩散的病毒却传播进入了瑞士境内，也就是说学校也不再安全，无法成为学生们的庇护所。在同学们都十分恐慌焦躁的时候，学校立马召开了紧急会议，针对已扩散至瑞士的疫情进行学校新的安排，宣布学生们可以即刻开始订飞回祖国的机票随时离开学校。在这样棘手的情况下学校提前一个星期允许学生离校，使远在他乡的家长们也松了口气，毕竟当病毒遍布全球，还是家最安全。当学生们离开学校后，整个学校也进行了全面细致的消毒，为学生们再一次回到学校后的卫生问题把关。 疫情下的旅途——By Fiona 对于地区疫情相对严重的中国学生，校长也与家长们进行了全方面的沟通，从最开始未取消学生假期滞留学校计划，并接受请中国厨师多做些中餐的建议，到后来瑞士疫情逐渐严重后大家商议决定让学校为中国学生包机回家，学校为学生们提供了各种便利。家长们一如既往的细心和学校始终如一的理解，是一切问题解决的基础。令人唏嘘的是，全面的保护下依然有一两位学生在回国的途中遭到感染，学校也第一时间联系家长询问状况并如实报给全校师生，给出解决方案，让大家放心。现如今感染者也都在渐渐好转康复。放假后没多久，学校那边的神经便绷了起来，所有老师都没有放假的时间，而是回归学校，恢复岗位，开始准备更具有挑战性的网上教学。我相信是在他们的充分准备下，网上课堂才能不出意外地如期开始。网上的教学虽不像面对面教学那样有针对性，但却出乎意料得理想，学生也马上找到了在网上学习的方法，在这样的状态下，可喜的是学习效率并没有很明显的下降。反之，学校找到了更多的网上学习网站提高作业效率，我可以亲身体会到学习更加有趣有效了。 令我惊讶的是，学校还组织了很多有趣的每周小活动、小挑战和运动量要求，例如小活动就有一些抛卷纸接龙这样的网红小游戏，这些游戏既可维持师生之间的关系，也很可贵地，传播了一种老师们宅在家里的乐观精神。甚至学校的集会，学生老师1对1交谈也正常进行了，宿舍辩论比赛也如期进行，这是惊人的。在中国公立学校学生们忙碌地上着网课时，我们也同样不会松懈。在全球棘手的防疫环境下，希望我们都可以，一起努力一起进步，一起保护好自己，保护好身边的人，等这场战役打赢，再相见吧。 Original English Texts The silent battle against the Corona Virus is winding down in China, and in many other countries the battle has come into the final stage. Chinese students and workers are returning to their schools and jobs. In Switzerland, too, the first steps towards easing the measures against corona virus are being taken: barber shops, hardware shops, gardening shops, physiotherapy shops, cosmetic and tattoo shops, etc. are reopen. At such a time, I believe that you are also curious about the differences between the measures of overseas schools on COVID-19 and those in China. As a student in Aiglon, Switzerland, let me take you back to Aiglon and tell you what my school did during this period. As early as the New year festival of the Chinese New Year in 2020, when COVID-19 broke out completely, China took comprehensive measures to seal the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, and promptly control the spread of the disease. At the same time, overseas, we are always concerned about the situation of the corona virus as well. The school is also on high alert. Moreover, during the spring break, the Chinese students who could not return to China were allowed to stay in Switzerland which is safer then. Many volunteer teachers arranged a lot of interesting outdoor activities for us, which made us enjoy the holiday happily. Just over a month ago, during the Easter holidays, when the school had planned to accommodate and take care students from all over the world who could not return because their homeland was in danger, the virus had spread into Switzerland, meaning the school was no longer safe enough to be a refuge for students. When the students were very panic and anxious, the school held an emergency meeting immediately on the new arrangement, that students can begin to order tickets to fly back home at any time. In such a serious situation, the school allowed students to leave a week ahead of schedule, making parents in their home countries relieved, after all. Because when the virus is all over the world, home is the safest place for their children. When the students leave the school, the whole school is also thoroughly disinfected, to make sure there will be no hygiene issues to worry about when students return to school. For Chinese students with more serious virus problem in their home country, the school Principal communicated with their parents in all aspects. From the very beginning, the school decided not to cancel the plan for students to stay in the school during the holidays, and accepted the suggestion of hiring a Chinese chef to cook some Chinese food for the students. When Chinese parents decided to book a chartered flight to get all Chinese students back to China, the school provided all necessary assistance. The consistent care of the parents and the consistent understanding of the school are the foundation of all solutions. Unfortunately, even precautions have been taken, a couple of students were still infected on their way back to China. The school contacted the parents as soon as they got the information to inquire about the situation and reported to all the teachers and students truthfully, and provided solutions to make everyone rest assured. Now the infected students are getting better and recovering. Not long after the holiday, all the teachers started to work. They went back to school, resumed their jobs and began preparing for more challenging online teaching. Thanks to their full preparation the online classes started on time without surprise. Online teaching is not as targeted as face-to-face teaching, but it turned out to be unexpectedly good. Students also immediately found their way to learn online. In such a state, it is gratifying that the learning efficiency is not significantly reduced. On the contrary, the school has found more online learning websites to improve the work efficiency, and I for one can say that online learning is a more interesting and effective experience. To my surprise, the school also organized a lot of interesting weekly activities, challenges and exercise requirements. For example, there were some popular games such as toilet roll tossing. These games not only maintain the relationship between teachers and students, but more importantly, spread the optimistic spirit of teachers staying at home. Even the school assembly, tutor meeting, and house debate matches were carried out online as scheduled, which was amazing. In Chinese public schools, students are busy with their online classes, and we dont let up either. In the difficult time of global combating against COVID-19, I hope we can all work and make progress together, protect ourselves together and protect the people around us together. Let’s wait until we win this battle, and we will meet again. By Fiona from Aiglon 2020.05 该文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com
瑞士名校云专访（二）：瑞士艾格隆学校校长——Mrs. Nicola Sparrow
瑞士投资项目：中世纪古堡&葡萄园