发布时间：2020-05-21
《传承宝典》35 Covid-19疫情期间投资
摆脱恐慌进度已完成75%
在过去几周内，病毒大肆蔓延，政府管控收紧，一时间，人们很难接受这一冲击。金融市场也是如此。投资会受到大众心理的影响，近期的主旋律恐慌情绪也难免会影响市场。虽然投资的基本原理要求投资者能够摒除恐慌情绪带来的影响，但是更重要的是正确看待市场中的大众心理，认清为何此次情况不同以往。在大萧条期间，问题主要出在美联储身上：紧缩的货币政策在危机期间不断拉升利率，现在回头来看，是万万不该采取的政策。这使得各国货币纷纷脱离金本位，进而造成美元等货币大幅贬值等一系列问题。但是如今，情况截然相反。美联储没有重蹈覆辙，反而成为了解决问题的关键角色。采用战时经济措施，竭尽所能确保资金的流动性，大力扶持经济发展。尽管不能完全避免经济衰退，但是这种方式可以在有利条件下将经济损失控制在一定范围内，并促进经济的复苏。
如今的情况也不同于“信贷紧缩”后的经济衰退。此前的问题在于银行业系统缺陷导致的资金流动性危机，这一漏洞已在危机后被修复。相比之下，如今的情况是人类的健康和生命受到威胁，且政府和央行的应对措施正确而果断，在紧缺领域投入大量资金以确保流动性，反应速度之快也是前所未有。相比几周之前，我们现在更加了解如何检测确诊，检测能力也有所提升，掌握了几种可能抑制病毒的药物，甚至还有几只疫苗也有望带来曙光。我们还发现，保持社交距离能够有效控制感染几率，如果第二波疫情高峰来临，市场和政府能够准确认清风险，合理制定应对方案。正是因为我们掌握了更多信息、更加全面地了解风险，所以最恐慌的时刻已经过去。通过衡量资本市场的情况，由于疫情导致的恐慌之路我们已走完3/4的路程。在大众情绪触底后，投资者应该将目光转向长远，而非紧盯着短时间内的经济展望。确实，经济的复苏会有一个终点/起点，但是截至今年年底的全球经济走势非常有可能仍是积极乐观的。历史告诉我们，经济衰退时往往是投资的好时机，而非撤资（恐慌的人往往想要撤资）。对于我们来说，目前的市场并非可以任意“买买买”，而是需要积极挑选，对高质量领域进行投资，谨慎决策，全面估值。
Howard Marks（美国橡树资本创始人）曾经说过：“你无法预测未来，却可以为未来做好准备”。同样，我们很难准确预测病毒和经济的未来走向，但是我们现在就可以投资自己，手握优质资产，为未来做好准备。
Original English Texts
Investing during Covid-19 - we are 75% through the fear
There is no good reason to believe that history will repeat itself
The fear driving markets since February is due to a kind of dread that history will repeat itself. Investors worry that we are in the depth of a recession to rival the Great Depression or the kind of downturn that followed the Global Financial Crisis. But we believe circumstances are very different this time and that there are some signs most of the extreme fear may well be behind us.
Faced with the coronavirus pandemic and the very hard measures taken by governments to control its spread, we have all suffered a terrible shock over the past weeks. Financial markets have too. As sentiment plays an important role in investing, it is unsurprising that fear has recently been the major driver of markets. Although investing on fundamental principles requires a cutting-out of noise created by the pervading panic, it is important to try to gauge market sentiment and establish why things might be different this time.During the Great Depression, the US Federal Reserve was actually the major problem. It employed a tight monetary policy, raising interest rates throughout the crisis, which, with hindsight, was exactly the wrong thing to do. With the gold standard at the time there was a huge flight to gold, which caused the collapse of the dollar and many other issues besides.
Currently, the opposite is true. Rather than being the problem, the Fed today is a major part of the solution. Having adopted a wartime footing, it is pledging to do all it can to ensure liquidity and prop up the economy. Although a recession cannot be avoided altogether, the approach might, with a fair wind, limit the damage and support a recovery.Fears that today’s situation shares similarities with the recession that followed the Credit Crunch also seem misplaced. The deep problems then were due to a liquidity crisis created by a flawed banking system, which has since been reformed. Today, in contrast to previous crises, because it is about human health and life, the responses from governments and central banks have been incredible, making huge amounts of liquidity available where it is needed, at an unprecedented speed.
Compared to a few weeks ago we now have more information about better diagnostic testing, more testing capacity, potential anti-viral drugs and a number of vaccine results holding some promise. We now also know that social distancing measures are effective in flattening the infection rate. We also know that if a second wave occurs, the market and authorities are pretty well informed of the risks we face and are in a better position to consider clearly how to manage the situation.
It is largely due to this increase in information and a greater understanding of the risks that the worst of the fear, it seems, may be over. Our own capital market measures indicate that we are around three quarters of the way through the worst fears associated with the pandemic.Assuming that sentiment has found its floor, investors should keep their eye on the horizon rather than the immediate economic outlook. Although there may be a stop/start period in getting economies going again, we think the direction of travel for the global economy towards the end of the year may well be in a positive direction. Historically recessionary periods have proven to be good times to invest, not to disinvest (as those who are fearful may wish to do). For us, the current environment is not one of buying the so-called market. Rather it is an environment of very active stock selection, selecting only high quality businesses and being very careful with your choices and considerate with valuation.
I am reminded of Howard Marks( Founder of Oaktree Capital Management）’s quote: “You cannot predict, but you can prepare.” Not many of us can foretell exactly what will happen with the issues related to the virus and the economy but we believe we should be invested and can prepare by owning the right quality businesses.
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