How the 0.001% invest十万分之一的人群怎样投资
How the 0.001% invest 十万分之一的人群怎样投资 Investing and the super-rich 投资与超高净值人群 Think of the upper echelons of the money-management business, and the image that springs to mind is of fusty private banks in Geneva or London’s Mayfair, with marble lobbies and fake country-house meeting-rooms designed to make their super-rich clients feel at home. But that picture is out of date. A more accurate one would feature hundreds of glassy private offices in California and Singapore that invest in Canadian bonds, European property and Chinese startups—and whose gilded patrons are sleepwalking into a political storm. 想象一下财富管理业务的最高层：我们幻想他们应该端坐在日内瓦或伦敦梅菲尔的私人银行里，置身于大理石厅堂和乡村风格的会议室之中，旨在让其所服务的超级富豪们宾至如归。但这样的印象已经过时了，当下的场景是：位于加利福尼亚和新加坡的数百家玻璃幕墙的私人办公室里，投资向加拿大债券、欧洲房地产和中国的创业公司——背后镀金的老板们则在一场场政治风暴中穿梭。 Global finance is being transformed as billionaires get richer and cut out the middlemen by creating their own “family offices”, personal investment firms that roam global markets looking for opportunities. Largely unnoticed, family offices have become a force in investing, with up to $4trn of assets—more than hedge funds and equivalent to 6% of the value of the world’s stockmarkets. As they grow even bigger in an era of populism, family offices are destined to face uncomfortable questions about how they concentrate power and feed inequality. 全球金融正在转变，因为亿万富翁们变得更加富裕，并通过创建自己的“家族办公室”来切断中间商，这些个人投资公司漫游在全球市场内寻求机会。家族办公室虽还未受到广泛关注，却已成为投资的中坚力量，投资总额高达4万亿美元，超过对冲基金，等同于全球股票市场价值的6％。但是，伴随当下民族主义浪潮日渐壮大的家族办公室，却注定无法回避如何集中权力、处理财富不均这样的尴尬难题。 The concept is hardly new; John D. Rockefeller set up his family office in 1882. But the number has exploded this century. Somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 are based in America and Europe and in Asian hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong. Though their main task is to manage financial assets, the biggest offices, some with hundreds of staff, undertake all sorts of other chores, from tax and legal work to acting as high-powered butlers who book jets and pamper pets. “家族办公室”的概念并不新鲜；约翰·D·洛克菲勒早在1882年已成立他的家族办公室。但这个数字在本世纪爆发了：介于5,000到10,000个之间的家族办公室，广泛分布于美国、欧洲以及亚洲的中心（如新加坡和香港）。虽然其主要任务是管理金融资产，但在拥有数百名员工的最大型家族办公室里事务可谓极其繁多：从税务到法务，甚至是预订私人飞机和照顾萌宠的高级管家。 The costs of bringing such expertise in-mansion means that they generally make sense only for those worth over $100m, the top 0.001% of the global pile. Asian tycoons such as Jack Ma of Alibaba have created their own fiefs. The largest Western family offices, such as the one set up by George Soros, an investor and philanthropist, oversee tens of billions and are as muscular as Wall Street firms, competing with banks and private-equity groups to buy whole companies. 组建这种专家团队的成本，通常只对那些价值超过1亿美元的客户才有意义，这里讲的是全球最高净值的0.001％人群。像阿里巴巴的马云这样的亚洲大亨早已创建了自己的封地。最大的西方家族办公室，例如投资者和慈善家乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）所设立的家族办公室管理着数百亿美元，已经与彪悍的华尔街公司无异，可与银行和私募股权集团分庭抗礼，去收购大公司。 Every investment boom reflects the society that spawned it. The humble mutual fund came of age in the 1970s after two decades of middle-class prosperity in America. The rise of family offices reflects soaring inequality. Since 1980 the share of the world’s wealth owned by the top 0.01% has risen from 3% to 8%. As the founders of family firms receive dividends or the proceeds of initial public offerings, they usually redeploy the cash. But since the financial crisis there has been a loss of faith in external money managers. Rich clients have taken a closer look at private banks’ high fees and murky incentives, and balked. 每一次投资热潮都反映了催生它的社会现状。在美国经历了20年的中产阶级繁荣之后，1970年代诞生了低调的共同基金。家族办公室的崛起反映了财富不均现象的飙升。自1980年以来，由0.01％的最高净值人群所拥有的世界财富份额已从3％上升到8％。由于家族企业的创始人获得股息或首次公开募股的收益，他们通常会重新部署现金。但经过金融危机，他们对外部的理财经理的信心已丧失殆尽。在高额的私人银行费用和不显著的激励措施之下，这些富人们踌躇不前。 These trends are unlikely to fade, as our Briefing explains. The number of billionaires is still growing—199 newbies made the grade last year. In the emerging world older entrepreneurs who created firms in the boom years after 1990 are preparing to cash out, while in America and China younger tech entrepreneurs may soon float their companies, releasing a new wave of cash to reinvest. Family offices’ weight in the financial system, therefore, looks likely to rise further. As it does, the objections to them will rise exponentially. The most obvious of these is the least convincing—that family offices have created inequality. They are a consequence, not its cause. Nonetheless, there are concerns—and one in particular that is worth worrying about. 正如我们的简报所解释，这些趋势不太可能消退。亿万富翁的数量仍在增长——去年一年世界新增了199位亿万富翁。在新兴世界，1990年以后繁荣时期创建公司的老企业家们正在准备兑现，而在美国和中国，年轻的科技界企业家的公司市值可能会很快浮升，释放出新的现金再投资。因此，家族办公室在金融系统中的重要性可能会进一步地提高。事实上，对家族办公室的反对声也必将甚嚣尘上。最大的反对声其实并不具说服力：他们说家族办公室造成了贫富不均。但这只是结果，而非成因。尽管如此，家族办公室还是存在着一些隐忧问题，最突出的如下： The first is that family offices could endanger the stability of the financial system. Combining very rich people, opacity and markets can be explosive. ltcm, a $100bn hedge fund backed by the super-rich, blew up in 1998, almost bringing down Wall Street. Scores of wealthy people fell for a Ponzi scheme run by Bernie Madoff that collapsed in 2008. Still, as things stand family offices do not look like the next disaster waiting to happen. They have debt equivalent to 17% of their assets, making them among the least leveraged participants in global markets. On balance, they may even be a stabilising influence. Their funds are usually deployed for decades, making them far less vulnerable to panics than banks and many hedge funds. 首先，家族办公室有可能危及金融体系的稳定性。极端富裕人群资产的体量与不透明程度几乎是爆炸性的。Itcm，这家由超级富豪支持的1000亿美元对冲基金，于1998年爆发，几乎压垮了华尔街。 2008年，伯尼·马多夫（Bernie Madoff）经营的庞氏骗局让无数富豪陷入绝境。这些事件倒还没有使家族办公室看起来如同下一场大灾难。家族办公室的债务占其资产的17％，使其成为全球市场中杠杆率最低的参与者。总的来说，家族办公室甚至可能是一股稳定的影响力。他们的资金部署周期长则数十年，比起银行和许多对冲基金更不容易受到恐慌。 The second worry is that family offices could magnify the power of the wealthy over the economy. This is possible: were Bill Gates to invest exclusively in Turkey, he would own 65% of its stockmarket. But the aim is usually to diversify risk, not concentrate power, by taking capital from the original family business and putting it into a widely spread portfolio. The family-office industry is less concentrated than mainstream asset management, which a few firms such as BlackRock dominate. Compared with most fund managers, family offices have welcome habits, including a longer-term horizon and an appetite for startups. 第二个担忧是家族办公室可以放大富人对经济的影响力。这是可能的：如果比尔-盖茨只在土耳其投资，那他将拥有65％的股票市场。但富人们的初衷是：通过原始家族企业获取资金，将其投入多样化的投资组合来分散风险，而不是集中权力。家族办公室投资的行业，其集中程度低于主流资产管理机构，如贝莱德（Black Rock）这样的业内大佬。与大多数基金经理相比，家族办公室的包容性更广，更具长期战略眼光，也更愿意投资创业公司。 It is the third danger that has most bite: that family offices might have privileged access to information, deals and tax schemes, allowing them to outperform ordinary investors. So far there is little evidence for this. The average family office returned 16% in 2017 and 7% in 2016, according to Campden Wealth, a research firm, slightly lagging behind world stockmarkets. Nonetheless, tycoons are well connected. Family offices are becoming more complex—a third have at least two branches—making tax wheezes easier. Hungry brokers and banks are rolling out the red carpet and pitching deals with unlisted firms that are not available to ordinary investors. If all this did lead to an entrenched, unfair advantage, the effect, when compounded over decades, would make wealth inequality disastrously worse. 第三个也是最致命的危险：家族办公室可能有特权获取内幕信息，如交易和税收计划，使他们能够胜过普通投资者。到目前为止，没有太多例证可以证实这一说法。根据研究公司Campden Wealth的数据，2017年平均家族办公室的回报率为16％，2016年为7％，略低于世界股票市场。尽管如此，大亨巨富们之间关系密切。家族办公室也变得越来越复杂——为了使处理税务更容易，三分之一的家族办公室至少设两个分支机构。如饥似渴的经纪人和银行向那些普通投资者无法获知的非上市公司抛出橄榄枝，完成内幕交易。倘若确实因此导致了根深蒂固的不公平优势，那么这种影响在数十年的恶化中，会灾难性地加剧财富不平等。 The rich discover do-it-yourself The answer is vigilance and light. Most regulators, treasuries and tax authorities are beginners when it comes to dealing with family offices, but they need to ensure that rules on insider trading, the equal servicing of ...
2019年1月资产管理月度简报
2019年1月资产管理月度简报 强劲反弹 以领头羊纳斯达克综合指数（下图中黄线）和标准普尔500指数（下图中蓝线）为代表的美国股指，从2018年9月份的高点经历了直至12月24日的加速下跌。但之后，股市大幅飙升，标普500指数从2019年1月份的低点 + 7.9％上涨至 +15％。年底的波动并不罕见，投资者会以损失来抵消收益，从而降低税点。空头回补可能加速了2018年最后一周交投清淡的反弹。评论人士相继指出：尽管全球经济增长放缓，特别是美联储在进一步提高美元利率方面所持的谨慎态度。两年期与十年期美国国债收益率之间的差距已经扩大，对此，有人表示这是经济衰退的风险在减小，但由于短期国债收益率下降，短期内经济增长会放缓。乐观主义是否合理 从技术角度来看，9月份以来的高点和低点的不断下跌的格局已经被打破。我们目前需要修正远超于12月的低点水平，才能重拾对新的上升趋势的信心。2018年底标准普尔500指数仅比2017年底的水平高出0.3％。 欧洲显示出相似的近期模式 德国的GDP在2018年第四季度下降，而意大利实际上已陷入衰退。虽然欧洲经济增长和企业利润的基本面弱于美国，但自圣诞节以来，欧洲斯托克600指数已经与标准普尔500指数同步回升。 中国与美国 贸易谈判正在朝着2月底达成协议的方向发展，但仍存在重大障碍：美国希望中国不仅要购买更多的美国商品，还要减少国有企业的优惠融资条件。这将违背中国领导人所制定的大力扶持国企的政策。我们认为期望于达成一个完整、全面的协议有些过于乐观。同时，华为卷入在波兰和东欧国家的信息安全调查，尚未走出困境。 我们的政策 在资产管理方面，我们遵循以下四个原则：确定并遵循利好趋势（追逐风险）；下跌时迅速杀跌（规避风险）；确认触底时再次建仓（再次追逐风险）；利用行业、国家和区域指数跟踪基金和一篮子组合进行分散投资, 尽量降低投资一种股票或债券的风险; 我们采用价格-概率数学建模法判断市场是否显现利好或下跌趋势，是否走强或走弱，是否有可能在下一个周期（对我们而言是一个月）继续利好或下跌行情，以此控制“摩擦性”交易成本。雷梭勒家族办公室不随股市走势而决定是否投资，尤其是在股市从触底反弹之时。 小结与展望
自2017年底，少数几个国家的股市表现十分抢眼，包括巴西（以美元计：+27.0％），其次是阿根廷（+19.9％）和沙特阿拉伯（+18.8％）。我们的投资模型尚未在各大主要市场的下跌中得出决策性的暂停警告，我们将保持100％的现金，直到市场显露出新的趋势。 James CunninghamChief Investment Officer首席投资官La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA瑞士雷梭勒家族办公室January 31st, 20192019年1月31日 English Version Strong Bounce
From their September highs, the bellwether NASDAQ (yellow line in the chart below) and S&P 500 (blue) US stock indices experienced an accelerating decline to December 24th. Since then, stocks have rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 up some +15% since that low of which +7.9% in January. Volatility at year-end is not unusual, as investors take losses to offset gains to lower taxes.Short-covering probably accelerated the bounce in thin trading in the last week of 2018. Commentators cite continued, though decelerating global economic growth and, especially, caution on the part of the Federal Reserve in raising US dollar interest rates further. Spreads between two- and ten-year US Treasury yields have widened, which some say indicates less risk of a recession, but because shorter yields have fallen, indicating lower growth in the near term. In technical terms, the pattern of falling highs and lower lows from September has been broken, just. We would need to see a correction from here that stops well above the December lows to gain confidence in a new upward trend. The S&P 500 is just 0.3% above its level at the end of 2017. German GDP declined in the last quarter of 2018 and Italy is technically in recession. Although European fundamentals in growth and corporate profits are weaker than in America, the broad Eurostoxx 600 index has recovered in parallel to the S&P 500 since Christmas. Trade negotiations are progressing towards the basis of an agreement by the end of February, but major obstacles remain: the US wants China not just to buy more American goods but to reduce preferential financing terms for state-owned enterprises. This would go against President Xi’s established policy to foster national champions. We consider expectations of a full, comprehensive agreement overly optimistic. Meanwhile, Huawei’s woes continue, with suspicions of espionage in Poland and other East-European countries. Our Policy
In asset management we follow four principles: Identify and follow positive trends (risk on); Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off); Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on); Diversify by using sector, national and regional index-tracking funds and baskets, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bond. We use mathematical modeling of prices and probabilities to determine if a trend is positive or negative, strengthening or weakening, and likely or not to continue for the next period (which for us is one month, to control trading cost “friction”). La Soleille is contrarian at the trend change, particularly when a downtrend turns positive. The few nationalstock markets showing a strong performance since the end of 2017include Brazil(+ 27.0% in US dollars), followed Argentina (+19.9%) and Saudi Arabia (+18.8%). Our models do not yet indicate a decisive break in the major markets’downtrend, and we remain 100% in cash until a new trend manifests itself. James CunninghamChief Investment OfficerLa Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA January 31st, 2019 该文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务： 1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资 4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com
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