2019年3月资产管理月度简报
2019年3月资产管理月度简报反弹在三月份暂停 尽管美国市场第一季度的表现,是1998年以来最为强劲的,但标准普尔500指数仅上涨了0.5%(见下图),而摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数在3月份也仅上涨0.1%。虽然全球经济增长正在放缓,但IT领域(+18.2%)和能源(+15.6%)板块的表现,均优于工业(+15.5%)。从技术层面看,市场仍在试图突破(在我们之前发布的资管报告中提到过的)那三次中途失败的反弹区间。未来几周,上市公司将开始公布第一季度利润。在全球贸易和增长放缓的情况下,它们还会上涨吗?低利率意味着经济增长将进一步放缓 尽管股市自12月24日的低点以来大幅上涨,但政府债券的收益率却有所下降。德国10年期国债收益率为负,而在美国,10年期国债收益率已跌破短期收益率。这表明投资者预计通胀将会下降,或许还会伴随着经济衰退。高油价加上较低的通胀预期意味着:其它商品的价格充其量也是停滞不前。如果没有通货膨胀,更高的能源成本只能意味着更低的消费需求。市场是否在庆祝美国联邦储备委员会(FED)和欧洲央行(ECB)采取了更为忍让的姿态,而没有考虑到企业利润增长放缓的潜在影响。包括来福车(LYFT)、优步(UBER)和图片分享网站Pinterest在内的互联网商务公司,正赶在市场表现良好之际进行IPO。与此同时,英国脱欧问题仍未解决,中美贸易谈判仍在拖延。中国股市的投资者们,所预期的结果显然好到足以抵消国内需求和投资放缓的影响:今年,上海股市上涨了21.2%,而科技股云集的深圳股市则欢欣鼓舞地上涨了30.5%。 中国账户盈余的消失 尽管中国的贸易平衡在过去5年中有所减弱,但正是出境旅游业的迅猛增长,使该国著名的贸易顺差降为近于零的水平。这反映出中国消费者正变得越来越富裕,他们的储蓄率正在下降,较低的储蓄可能意味着较低的投资和生产率。我们的政策 正如读者所知,La Soleille不会根据经济、行业或公司分析做市场预测,只按照市场行情和其它技术指标作出判断。我们利用价格-概率数学建模法判断市场是否显现利好或下跌趋势,是否走强或走弱,是否有可能在下一个周期(对我们而言是一个月)继续利好或下跌行情,(以此控制“摩擦性”交易成本)。La Soleille在趋势变化时采取相反立场,尤其是在止跌反弹时。小结与展望 排在上证指数之后,2019年到目前为止,表现最好的国家股票指数依次是:意大利(+15.7%)、俄罗斯(+13.2%)和沙特阿拉伯(+12.8%),均以美元计价。第一个国家正陷入衰退的漩涡,而另外两个国家则得益于油价的上涨。股市目前的水平与去年10月我们卖出最后一批头寸时大致相同。在市场突破目前的阻力位之前,我们仍持有100%的现金。James CunninghamChief Investment Officer首席投资官La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA瑞士雷梭勒家族办公室March 31st, 20192019年3月31日 English Version The Rally Stalls in March Although US markets had their strongest first quarter since 1998, The S&P 500 index rose just 0.5% (see graph below) and the MSCI World index a mere 0.1% in March. IT(+18.2%) and Energy (+15.6%) out performed as did Industrials (+ 15.5%) despites lowing growth across the world. On a technical basis, the market is still trying to break through the zone of the three failed rallies mentioned in our previous Bulletin. Listed companies will begin reporting first-quarter profits in coming weeks. Will they rise despite slowing global trade and growth?Low Interest Rates Suggest More Slowing in Economies While stock markets have rallied sharply since a low on December 24th, government bond yields have fallen. Germand 10-year Bund yields are negative and, in America, 10-year Treasury yields are below short-term yields. This indicates that investors expect inflation to fall, perhaps with a recession. Higher oil prices combined with lower inflation expectations mean that prices for other goods will stagnate at best. Absent inflation, higher energy costs can only mean lower consumer demand. Are markets celebrating more accomodating postures from both the US Federal Resserve and the European Central Bank without considering the implicatiosn of slower growth on corporate profits? Internet commerce companies including Lyft, Uber and Pinterest are rushing to make IPOs while the market is sweet. Meanwhile, Brexit remains unsolved and the China/US trade talks drag on. Chinese stock investors apparently anticipate an outcome good enough to compensate for slowing domestic demand and investment: Shanghai is up +21.2% and Tech-heavy Shenzhen a euphoric +30.5% this year.China’s Vanishing Current Account Surplus
While China’s balance of trade has weakened over the past five years, it is the dramatic rise in foreign tourism that has shrunk the country’s famed surplus to near zero. This reflects a declining savings rate among Chinese consumers as they grow more prosperous. Lower savings can mean lower investment and productivity.Our policy In asset management we follow four principles: Identify and follow positive trends (risk on) Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off) Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on) Diversify by using index-tracking funds, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bondSummary and Outlook After Shanghai, the best national stock index performances thus far in 2019 are Italy (+15.7%), Russia (+13.2%) and Saudi Arabia (+12.8%), all in US dollars. The first country is in recession, while the other two ride higher oil prices. Stock market levels are roughly where they were when we sold our last positions in October. Until the market breaks through current resistance, we remain 100% in cash.James CunninghamChief Investment OfficerLa Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SAMarch 31st, 2019 该文章为搜瑞士原创,部分图片摘引自网络媒体的公开资源,如需转载,敬请注明出处。 Sooswiss为您提供 瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务: 1)家族传承 2)财富管理 3)瑞士投资 4)居留计划 5)税务优化 6)家族治理 更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com