发布时间：2019-06-17
2019年3月资产管理月度简报
中国账户盈余的消失
尽管中国的贸易平衡在过去5年中有所减弱，但正是出境旅游业的迅猛增长，使该国著名的贸易顺差降为近于零的水平。这反映出中国消费者正变得越来越富裕，他们的储蓄率正在下降，较低的储蓄可能意味着较低的投资和生产率。
我们的政策
正如读者所知，La Soleille不会根据经济、行业或公司分析做市场预测，只按照市场行情和其它技术指标作出判断。我们利用价格-概率数学建模法判断市场是否显现利好或下跌趋势，是否走强或走弱，是否有可能在下一个周期（对我们而言是一个月）继续利好或下跌行情，（以此控制“摩擦性”交易成本）。La Soleille在趋势变化时采取相反立场，尤其是在止跌反弹时。
小结与展望
排在上证指数之后，2019年到目前为止，表现最好的国家股票指数依次是：意大利(+15.7%)、俄罗斯(+13.2%)和沙特阿拉伯(+12.8%)，均以美元计价。第一个国家正陷入衰退的漩涡，而另外两个国家则得益于油价的上涨。股市目前的水平与去年10月我们卖出最后一批头寸时大致相同。在市场突破目前的阻力位之前，我们仍持有100%的现金。
James Cunningham
Chief Investment Officer
首席投资官
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
瑞士雷梭勒家族办公室
March 31st, 2019
2019年3月31日
The Rally Stalls in March
Although US markets had their strongest first quarter since 1998, The S&P 500 index rose just 0.5% (see graph below) and the MSCI World index a mere 0.1% in March. IT(+18.2%) and Energy (+15.6%) out performed as did Industrials (+ 15.5%) despites lowing growth across the world.
On a technical basis, the market is still trying to break through the zone of the three failed rallies mentioned in our previous Bulletin. Listed companies will begin reporting first-quarter profits in coming weeks. Will they rise despite slowing global trade and growth?
Low Interest Rates Suggest More Slowing in Economies
While stock markets have rallied sharply since a low on December 24th, government bond yields have fallen. Germand 10-year Bund yields are negative and, in America, 10-year Treasury yields are below short-term yields. This indicates that investors expect inflation to fall, perhaps with a recession. Higher oil prices combined with lower inflation expectations mean that prices for other goods will stagnate at best. Absent inflation, higher energy costs can only mean lower consumer demand. Are markets celebrating more accomodating postures from both the US Federal Resserve and the European Central Bank without considering the implicatiosn of slower growth on corporate profits?
Internet commerce companies including Lyft, Uber and Pinterest are rushing to make IPOs while the market is sweet. Meanwhile, Brexit remains unsolved and the China/US trade talks drag on. Chinese stock investors apparently anticipate an outcome good enough to compensate for slowing domestic demand and investment: Shanghai is up +21.2% and Tech-heavy Shenzhen a euphoric +30.5% this year.
China’s Vanishing Current Account Surplus
While China’s balance of trade has weakened over the past five years, it is the dramatic rise in foreign tourism that has shrunk the country’s famed surplus to near zero. This reflects a declining savings rate among Chinese consumers as they grow more prosperous. Lower savings can mean lower investment and productivity.
Our policy
In asset management we follow four principles:
Identify and follow positive trends (risk on)
Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off)
Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on)
Diversify by using index-tracking funds, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bond
Summary and Outlook
After Shanghai, the best national stock index performances thus far in 2019 are Italy (+15.7%), Russia (+13.2%) and Saudi Arabia (+12.8%), all in US dollars. The first country is in recession, while the other two ride higher oil prices. Stock market levels are roughly where they were when we sold our last positions in October. Until the market breaks through current resistance, we remain 100% in cash.
James Cunningham
Chief Investment Officer
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
March 31st, 2019
该文章为搜瑞士原创，部分图片摘引自网络媒体的公开资源，如需转载，敬请注明出处。
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