发布时间：2020-07-29
《传承宝典》36
通过提前规划，缓冲偶然事件造成的危机震荡
本文内容由雷梭勒家族办公室编译整理。原作者为Susie Hillier，担任Stonehage Fleming财富规划总监，拥有25年咨询经验，客户群体覆盖企业家、董事、私募领域等专业人士，与客户长期保持稳定联系，目前参与家族第三代继承人的咨询服务。
通过建立模型让客户更加看清未来
作为财富战略规划师，尽管本身不一定是悲观的人，但是职业要求我们假设生活注定不会一帆风顺。我们的职责是与客户讨论他们一生中的所有可能，无论是好事或者坏事，也不管是宏观市场或者个人生活中偶然事件。这就是我们的工作，为客户生活中一切偶然事件做好事先规划。为此，我们会通过一系列问题深度了解客户。如果您要结婚了，您期望的婚礼奢华程度如何？如果您有子女，您希望他们婚礼的奢华程度如何？如果您因病失去了工作能力，希望谁来接手您的财务工作？这种情况下您仍然希望住在家中吗？您如何看待不同程度的风险？您认为遗产传承有多重要？很多问题在我们提问前，客户自己从未想过。透过问题，我们为客户规划的效率更高，客户也能在突发情况下以平常心看待事物。在他们的答案的基础上，我们建立了现金流模型，运行“抗损能力测试”，向客户展示，以其目前的战略，如遇市场崩盘或其他突发事件时他们可能会如何应对。这样的好处之一就是客户可以拥有危机下的视角，虽然是模拟，但是这场危机给了他们真实的“画面感”，看清金融危机来临时会发生什么。
我们的模型可以显示市场衰退的严重程度、与以往危机的区别、以及追踪以往客户的投资组合多久才能恢复到市场衰退前的水平。模型中可以增设变量让场景更加具体、更有针对性，例如支出变量，客户由于失业或者彩票中奖后会对生活产生怎样的影响。当危机真的出现在现实中，我们的大部分客户都可以自如应对，市场衰退和经济下行确实会给他们造成损失，但是他们至少知道未来的大致走向。他们知道自己从经济危机中走出来时，依旧可以保有心底最珍贵的事物。可能多少还会有些安慰，毕竟在现实中的经历并不是模型展示中最糟糕的场景。正因如此，当新冠疫情占领各大头条版面时，我们的客户心态更加乐观。总的来看，我们的客户不但没有措手不及，反而细细盘算起了自己的计划。有的客户想利用市场下行带来的机遇开始着手投资，有的客户则明白投资有涨有跌，自己的资产是在安全的领域，只要坐稳渡过难关就好。
此次疫情也让决策机制覆盖到更广阔的领域，比如万一客户去世无法阐明自己的财富意愿，或者无法帮助自己的亲人渡过财务难关时，会发生什么。近期的边境封锁也使我们与客户的沟通更加常规化。在全球疫情的影响下，客户自然而然地意识到生活不会处处尽善尽美，需要为一切偶然事件提前做好规划。与客户一同发现生活中对他们最看重的事，为未来做好更周全的准备。
Original English Texts
Planning for all eventualities can cushion you from the shock of a crisis – Susie Hillier. As Head of Wealth Planning of Stonehage Fleming, Susie brings over 25 years’ experience to a wide client base of entrepreneurs, Board Directors and private equity professionals. She has developed long-standing relationships with clients, in some instances now advising the third generation of family members.
Modelling affords clients clearer visibility of what’s to come
As wealth strategists it is our job to assume that life may not all be a bed of roses. That is not to say though that we are pessimists. We talk to our clients about all the things – good and bad – that could happen in their lifetimes, both in markets and in their personal lives. That is our job; we plan for all eventualities.To do this we need get to know our clients well by asking them a lot of questions. If you were to get married, how lavish would you want the reception to be? If you have children and they want to get married, how lavish would you want their wedding reception to be? Or, if you were incapacitated by illness who would you want to run your finances? Would you want to continue to live at home? How do you feel about different types of risk? How important is it to you to pass on a legacy to your beneficiaries? Indeed, many of the questions we ask people, they may not even have asked themselves.
Not only does this approach help us to do our job effectively, it also helps our clients to take things in their stride a little better than most, when the unexpected happens. The answers to these questions help us do our cash flow modelling. We run a ‘capacity for loss’ test, which shows a client how they might ‘cope’ in the event of a market crash or other unplanned event, based on their current strategy. One important result is our clients have all looked down the barrel of a crisis – albeit a pretend one. It gives them real ‘visibility’ when it comes to a financial crunch.Our models show how bad a drop in the market could be, compare it to others and track how long it has previously taken a client’s portfolios to return to where it started. You can add assumptions to add greater detail and tailor the scenario – change expenditure requirements, understand the impact of a period out of work or - more positively – of winning the lottery.
When a real crisis strikes, most of our clients are comfortable that while a market crash or economic downturn could hurt them, at least they have some idea what the journey will look like. They also know that when they come out the other side, they will still be able to afford what is most important to them. They may also take comfort from seeing that they haven’t yet hit the worst case scenario we presented to them in the modelling.Because of this, when the outbreak of the Covid-19 hit the headlines, our clients were more sanguine than some. Rather than panicking, by and large, our clients considered their options. Some wanted to take advantage of the drop in markets and started investing. Others acknowledged that investments go up as well as down and, confident that their capital was in safe hands, decided to sit tight and ride out the storm.The crisis has also galvanised decision-making on wider topics, such as what would happen in the event that clients were no longer around to articulate their wishes for their wealth or help guide their loved ones on financial matters. The recent lockdowns have meant that we have been in even more regular contact with our clients than usual. The pandemic has inevitably put them more in touch with the idea that bad things happen and the planning for all eventualities continues. Working with clients to tease out what is really important to them helps ensure that everyone is better prepared for the future.
该文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。
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