发布时间：2019-06-12
2019年1月资产管理月度简报
强劲反弹
乐观主义是否合理
从技术角度来看，9月份以来的高点和低点的不断下跌的格局已经被打破。我们目前需要修正远超于12月的低点水平，才能重拾对新的上升趋势的信心。2018年底标准普尔500指数仅比2017年底的水平高出0.3％。
欧洲显示出相似的近期模式
德国的GDP在2018年第四季度下降，而意大利实际上已陷入衰退。虽然欧洲经济增长和企业利润的基本面弱于美国，但自圣诞节以来，欧洲斯托克600指数已经与标准普尔500指数同步回升。
中国与美国
贸易谈判正在朝着2月底达成协议的方向发展，但仍存在重大障碍：美国希望中国不仅要购买更多的美国商品，还要减少国有企业的优惠融资条件。这将违背中国领导人所制定的大力扶持国企的政策。我们认为期望于达成一个完整、全面的协议有些过于乐观。同时，华为卷入在波兰和东欧国家的信息安全调查，尚未走出困境。
我们的政策
在资产管理方面，我们遵循以下四个原则：确定并遵循利好趋势（追逐风险）；下跌时迅速杀跌（规避风险）；确认触底时再次建仓（再次追逐风险）；利用行业、国家和区域指数跟踪基金和一篮子组合进行分散投资, 尽量降低投资一种股票或债券的风险; 我们采用价格-概率数学建模法判断市场是否显现利好或下跌趋势，是否走强或走弱，是否有可能在下一个周期（对我们而言是一个月）继续利好或下跌行情，以此控制“摩擦性”交易成本。雷梭勒家族办公室不随股市走势而决定是否投资，尤其是在股市从触底反弹之时。
Strong Bounce
From their September highs, the bellwether NASDAQ (yellow line in the chart below) and S&P 500 (blue) US stock indices experienced an accelerating decline to December 24th. Since then, stocks have rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 up some +15% since that low of which +7.9% in January. Volatility at year-end is not unusual, as investors take losses to offset gains to lower taxes.Short-covering probably accelerated the bounce in thin trading in the last week of 2018. Commentators cite continued, though decelerating global economic growth and, especially, caution on the part of the Federal Reserve in raising US dollar interest rates further. Spreads between two- and ten-year US Treasury yields have widened, which some say indicates less risk of a recession, but because shorter yields have fallen, indicating lower growth in the near term.
In technical terms, the pattern of falling highs and lower lows from September has been broken, just. We would need to see a correction from here that stops well above the December lows to gain confidence in a new upward trend. The S&P 500 is just 0.3% above its level at the end of 2017. German GDP declined in the last quarter of 2018 and Italy is technically in recession. Although European fundamentals in growth and corporate profits are weaker than in America, the broad Eurostoxx 600 index has recovered in parallel to the S&P 500 since Christmas. Trade negotiations are progressing towards the basis of an agreement by the end of February, but major obstacles remain: the US wants China not just to buy more American goods but to reduce preferential financing terms for state-owned enterprises. This would go against President Xi’s established policy to foster national champions. We consider expectations of a full, comprehensive agreement overly optimistic. Meanwhile, Huawei’s woes continue, with suspicions of espionage in Poland and other East-European countries.
Our Policy
In asset management we follow four principles: Identify and follow positive trends (risk on); Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off); Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on); Diversify by using sector, national and regional index-tracking funds and baskets, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bond. We use mathematical modeling of prices and probabilities to determine if a trend is positive or negative, strengthening or weakening, and likely or not to continue for the next period (which for us is one month, to control trading cost “friction”). La Soleille is contrarian at the trend change, particularly when a downtrend turns positive.
The few nationalstock markets showing a strong performance since the end of 2017include Brazil(+ 27.0% in US dollars), followed Argentina (+19.9%) and Saudi Arabia (+18.8%). Our models do not yet indicate a decisive break in the major markets’downtrend, and we remain 100% in cash until a new trend manifests itself.
James Cunningham
Chief Investment Officer
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
January 31st, 2019
该文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。
Sooswiss为您提供
瑞士方向私人管家式的定制服务：
1）家族传承 2）财富管理 3）瑞士投资
4）居留计划 5）税务优化 6）家族治理
更多资讯请登录网站 www.sooswiss.com
