发布时间：2021-01-14
Future is Now《传承宝典》41
——科技公司估值并无虚高
导读：
Gerrit Smit作为资产管理负责人，管理着Stonehage Fleming的“全球最佳想法股票基金”。本期我们分享一篇Gerrit Smit对于科技公司股市估值的分析文章，文章标题为《强劲的利润增长与现金流预示着科技板块的美好未来》。本文内容由雷梭勒家族办公室编译整理，版权归原作者所有。
人们对于股市泡沫的恐惧感，就像其他泡沫一样，来源于不知泡沫何时会破裂。但是严格来说，只有在没有利润增长或者现金流支持的情况下，股市泡沫才会造成实质性风险。而如今的科技板块并非如此，更谈不上泡沫。从利润增长的角度来看，目前相比于其他主板公司来说，科技公司确实值得人们投注更多信心。据Stonehage Fleming投资管理部门估计，未来3年内科技板块将经历13-18%的利润增长，这一幅度是整个市场良好时期增幅的两倍之多。如果把市盈率除以预期增长率，会发现科技板块的本益成长比率，即“PEG”比率，约为3.1。而在科技板块以外，满足全球商业计划组织（GBI）严格筛选要求的顶级公司，其PEG比率则为4.1。因此，从增长预期的角度来看，科技板块的领头公司要比全球顶级公司的估值要低约四分之一，而这一观点并未被大众所接受。
另外，人们非常看好科技行业将会在未来持续现有的结构性增长。美国电商公司的渗透率从2019年年底至今翻了一倍，不论从积极还是消极的角度解读，这一变化都将对全球的其他公司带来巨大的结构性影响。随着支付公司的继续向好发展，这样的趋势只会更加明显。疫情之下，可能最明显能感受到医疗领域的数字化发展，很多投资者也非常看好这一领域未来的前景。除此之外还有流媒体服务领域，人们在群居生活中还将不断体验新兴的媒体娱乐方式。
但是，科技行业未来可能出现的问题来自于监管领域。目前我们已经能看到，一些科技公司采取的商业手段可能存在反竞争的问题，从而可能带来法律制裁。以谷歌公司为例，之所以谷歌公司能够占到近90%的市场份额，是因为其与苹果公司的独家协议，让谷歌浏览器成为苹果平板电脑和苹果手机的默认搜索引擎。监管部门很有可能会考虑在未来采取措施避免这种情况的出现。但是即便如此，谷歌公司也并不会损失太多市场份额，很难想象还有其他搜索引擎公司能够达到谷歌公司的用户体量。如果监管部门将世界科技巨头拆分成小型公司又会怎样呢？虽然这个想法目前不大可能成为现实，但是我们可以在亚马逊或Alphabet的案例中看到，拆分后各个公司价值的集合可能比目前公司作为一个整体更高，所以这也并非需要过多担忧。
科技行业领头企业带来的利润和现金流正在带动经济发展和促进更多就业，他们不断支持着商业活动的健康发展以及全球股价的稳定，并且在未来的一段时间内也将持续发光发热。
Original English Texts
Technology Companies not Over-valued
Gerrit Smit is Head of Equity Management. He manages the Stonehage Fleming Global Best Ideas Equity Fund.
Strong earnings growth and cash flows bode well for tech sector
The fear with stock market bubbles – like all bubbles – is that they might burst unexpectedly. Critically, though, they only pose material risk if there is neither earnings growth nor cash flow to support them. This is not the case for today’s technology sector; there is no bubble. Indeed, in terms of growth, there is currently more reason to be confident about technology companies than there is about many ‘staples’.
Stonehage Fleming Investment Management expects 13-18% earnings growth in the tech sector over the next three years. That is more than double what you could expect under a constructive scenario for the ‘market’ as a whole. If you divide that projected growth into the earnings multiple, you get a price/earnings-to-growth, or ‘PEG’ ratio of approximately 3.1. If you calculate the same ratio for typical companies of the calibre to meet our stringent quality criteria for GBI, that number is 4.1. We therefore believe that the technology leaders may be actually around a quarter less expensive in terms of growth expectations than the valuation of the highest quality universe of companies - a concept many struggle to make peace with.
Furthermore, there are very strong arguments for technology’s continued structural growth story. Ecommerce penetration in the US has doubled from where it was at the end of last year, which has huge structural implications – positive and negative – for many businesses around the world. It is a trend set to continue with payment companies also likely to do particularly well. Possibly most obviously, given the pandemic, the digitisation of healthcare is another sector in which investors can expect to see strong continued growth. Streaming services, too, will thrive as people continue to adopt new ways of consuming media in their droves.
Nevertheless, regulation of technology companies is a possible blot on the sector’s landscape. What we are seeing so far is legal action taken against companies employing tactics deemed to be anticompetitive. Take Google, a company with nearly 90% market share, thanks in part to an almost exclusive arrangement with Apple whereby it gets to be the search engine of choice on their tablets and phones. It seems likely that regulators will consider taking steps to address this kind of agreement.Having said that, Google is unlikely to lose out much in that scenario. It is hard to imagine another search engine that people would turn to in the same numbers.
And what of regulators unbundling some of the world’s technology behemoths into smaller entities, albeit currently an outlying possibility? In the case of Amazon or Alphabet, the sums of those potentially split parts are likely to be worth more than the entire companies’ current valuations, so this doesn’t appear to give too much cause for concern either.
Earnings and cash flow from the technology market leaders are the very generators and employment creators of our economy. As they continue to support the good health of both businesses and share prices around the world, they look set to do so for some time to come.
本文章转载自雷梭勒家族办公室，如有侵权，敬请告知删除。
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