发布时间：2019-06-17
2019年4月资产管理月度简报
English Version
New Highs In April
With better than expected quarterly earnings for American corporations, especially banks, the US stock indices reached new highs in late April. Other positive news included an inconclusive report from the Mueller investigation into the Trump presidential campaign in 2016 as well as repeated assurances from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that the US and China were very close to an agreement on trade. Despite historically low unemployment, rising wages, and increased costs due to tariffs on Chinese imports and the USMCA treaty with Mexico and Canada, US inflation remains low at 1.3%. The Federal Reserve confirmed its neutral stance.
We Reinvested On April 1st
Just after our March Bulletin, the S&P 500 index (dark line) corrected but held above its previous rally peak. This was confirmed by the 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day (blue) line. The NASDAQ (yellow line) gave the same signal, as did the Russell 2000 index of mid-caps and the MSCI World (not shown). We took positions in ETFs covering IT, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Communications (which includes Disney and Netflix), the strongest sectors.
Global Growth Picks Up
US GDP growth for the first quarter was surprisingly strong at 3.2%, and China’s held at 6.4%. Both economies showed strong consumer spending. Even European growth estimates roses lightly. This positive news did not sustain the extraordinary run of the Chinese stock markets, which rolled over in April. Oil prices peaked despite US pressure on importers of Iranian oil and fighting in Lybia as American production continued to grow thanks to major companies entering the shale-extraction field. America is now the largest producer of hydrocarbons in the world, and is expected to become a net exporter as early as next year.
Our Policy
As our readers know, La Soleille does not make predictions based on economic, industry or company analysis. We act on market trends and other technical signals alone. In asset management we follow four principles:
Identify and follow positive trends (risk on)
Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off)
Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on)
Diversify by using index-tracking funds, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bond
We use mathematical modeling of prices and probabilities to determine if a trend is positive or negative, strengthening or weakening, and likely or not to continue for the next period (which for us is one month, to control trading cost “friction”). La Soleille is contrarian at the trend change, particularly when a down trend turns positive.
Summary And Outlook
After a retreat, Shanghai (+28.4%) remains the best-performing national stock index thus far in 2019 followed by Italy (+18.6%), Russia (+18.6%) and Saudi Arabia (+18.0%), all in US dollars and ahead of the S&P 500 at +17%. With our new positions we are 80% invested in equities, with the balance in cash.
James Cunningham
Chief Investment Officer
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
April 30th, 2019
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