2018年11月资产管理月度简报
发布时间：2018-12-10
2018年11月资产管理月度简报
“迷失”曼哈顿
继10月暴跌之后，引领大势的美国股市在11月实现小幅上涨。自标普500指数于9月20日收盘以来，此前表现最好的板块出现最大修正：技术下跌15%，能源下跌15%，非必需消费品下跌14%。标普500指数今年仍略有上涨，非必需消费品和技术指数仍然表现优异，但一马当先的是医疗保健 — 非周期性的防御性板块。尽管第三季度盈利强劲，但投资者已然获利，采取保守立场。最常被提及的原因是全球经济增长放缓。
寻找方向
标普500指数在9月底首次下跌后，进一步跌至5月份的水平，未能止跌回升，反而重落低点。我们预计如今的第三次尝试也不会成功。接下来很可能是退缩。
虽然在布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的G20峰会上，习近平主席可能会向特朗普总统释放和解之意，但真正的“战争”焦点不在于汽车、大豆甚至是贸易，而是技术。美国之前禁止向中国出售英特尔高级微处理器（2015年），最近禁止向中兴出售一切芯片（2017年，后来撤销），恰好证明了这一点。中国近三分之二的高级微处理器依赖进口。随后，华为被禁止在美国（和新西兰）推出5G电信。面对重重围堵，中国推行“中国制造2025”计划。除投资自主研发高端芯片外，中国还投入大量资源发展人工智能和量子计算，有望在这些领域超越美国及其盟友。
我们的政策
在资产管理方面，我们遵循以下四个原则：
•确定并遵循利好趋势（追逐风险）；
•下跌时迅速杀跌（规避风险）；
•确认触底时再次建仓（再次追逐风险）；
•利用行业、国家和区域指数跟踪基金和一篮子组合进行分散投资，尽量降低投资一种股票或债券的风险。
我们采用价格-概率数学建模法判断市场是否显现利好或下跌趋势，是否走强或走弱，是否有可能在下一个周期（对我们而言是一个月）继续利好或下跌行情，以此控制“摩擦性”交易成本。雷梭勒家族办公室不随股市走势而决定是否投资，尤其是在股市从触底反弹之时。到目前为止，仅有个别国家股市在2018年表现良好，包括巴西（上涨16.8%，以美元计），其次是以色列（上涨7.9%）和沙特阿拉伯（上涨5.6%）。欧洲斯托克50指数下跌9.6%，MSCI新兴市场指数下跌14.4%，中国（上海）指数下跌21.3%。自9月25日清仓以来，我们保持100%现金，直到出现新趋势为止。
James Cunningham
Chief Investment Officer
首席投资官
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
瑞士雷梭勒家族办公室
November 30th,2018
2018年11月30日
English Version
Lost in Manhattan
After a steep fall in October, the trend-leading US equity markets achieved small gains in November. Since the S&P 500’s record close on September 20th, the heretofore best-performing sectors have corrected the most: Technology -15%, Energy -15%, and Consumer Discretionary -14%. The S&P 500 index is still up slightly for the year, and both Consumer Discretionary and Technology are still outperforming, but the leading sector is Health Care, a non-cyclical defensive sector. Despite strong earnings for the third quarter, investors have taken profits and adopted a conservative stance. The reason most often cited is slowing economic growth worldwide. Looing for direction, following the initial drop in late September, the S&P 500 index fell further to levels last seen in May. A rally from there failed, retesting the same low. We do not expect the third attempt now underway to last. The next likely move is back down.
China versus America
While President Xi may prove conciliatory when he meets President Trump at the G-20 in Buenos Aires, the real “war” is not about cars or soya beans or even trade but about technology. The US has demonstrated this with bans on the sale to China of advanced Intel microprocessors (2015) and more recently of all chips to ZTE (2017, later rescinded). China imports some 2/3 of its advanced microprocessors. Huawei has since been barred from the roll-out of 5G telecommunications in the US (and New Zealand). China has responded with the “Made in China 2025” initiative. Besides investing the development of its own sophisticated chips, China is devoting substantial resources to artificial intelligence and quantum computing, areas where it could leapfrog America and its allies.
Our policy
In asset management we follow four principles:
•Identify and follow positive trends (risk on)
•Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off)
•Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on)
•Diversify by using sector, national and regional index-tracking funds and baskets, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bond
We use mathematical modeling of prices and probabilities to determine if a trend is positive or negative, strengthening or weakening, and likely or not to continue for the next period (which for us is one month, to control trading cost “friction”). La Soleille is contrarian at the trend change, particularly when a downtrend turns positive. The few national stock markets showing a positive performance thus far in 2018 include Brazil (+ 16.8% in US dollars), followed by Israel (+ 7.9%) and Saudi Arabia (+ 5.6%). Europe’s Eurostoxx 50 index is down - 9.6%, MSCI Emerging Markets - 14.4% and China (Shanghai) off - 21.3%. Since liquidating our last positions on September 25th, we remain 100% in cash until a new trend manifests itself.
James Cunningham
Chief Investment Officer
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
November 30th, 2018
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