发布时间：2019-03-13
19年2月 资产管理月报
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
瑞士雷梭勒家族办公室
Asset Management Bulletin
资产管理月度简报
今年伊始，股市一路高歌猛进
摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数（MSCI）在短短两个月内上涨了11.1%，主要受美国标准普尔500指数上涨11.4%的推动。中国，一个近年来的股灾区，大涨了18.4%（上证综指）。即使是增长缓慢的欧元区也上涨了9.4%，尤其是在欧元区的主要驱动体德国；甚至连欧洲的落后者意大利，其股票指数也上涨了11.9%。
然而，经合组织（OECD）已经降低了对2019年全球GDP增长和贸易的预期。制造业也正在放缓增速（见下图）。英国和欧盟在脱欧问题上仍处于僵局。为什么投资者却如此乐观？分析师指出，各国央行最近都采取了谨慎态度：美联储已停止上调基准利率，并减少了美国国债的持有量；欧洲央行也推迟了削减刺激的计划。
在中国，政府鼓励银行增加放贷，以应对经济放缓。但这些政策是对经济增长负面前景的回应，也是对企业利润的负面回应，而后者本应支撑起股市的表现。
股市复苏的定论尚为时过早
到目前为止，工业、房地产和能源是2019年美国股市最强劲的板块，都属于周期类股。数码信息化的蓬勃令信息科技（IT）板块在2018年末达到峰值，上涨了14%，这表明之前从11月中旬到圣诞节的抛售有些过头了。标准普尔500指数已经从12月24日的中间低点上涨了近20%，但我们仍不愿重返市场。看看下面的图表就知道原因了。美国股市再次突破200日移动均线，虽是一个好势头，但它刚巧处于前三次未能成功反弹的区间顶部。根据我们的投资模型，我们在2月14日确实收到了买入的信号。该指数目前仅上涨1.9%，比我们10月25日的销售点高出3.4%。只有看到该指数显著突破过去未能成功反弹的高点，我们才能确信新一轮牛市的到来。标普500指数目前的点位，较9月份的高点低了7.7%，这也是一个潜在的阻力位，说明短期内上行空间有限。
中国和美国即将达成贸易协定
特朗普总统对无限期推迟中国对美出口关税提高25%的谈判进展，感到欢欣鼓舞；只是最终协议的细节尚未明朗。让我们设想一处“特朗普团队”可能没有考虑到的方面：中国已将对美巨额贸易顺差投资于1.3万亿美元的美国国债；随着贸易顺差的下降，中国对美元的外汇顺差会减少，随之购买美国国债的“胃口”会缩小。与此同时，特朗普的减税政策和美国经济增长放缓，意味着美国的预算赤字不断上升，由此美国国债的发行会增多。
我们的政策
诚如读者所知，雷梭勒家族办公室不会根据经济、行业或公司分析结果进行市场预测。我们只按照市场趋势和其它指标判断市场走势。在资产管理方面，我们遵循以下四个原则：
确定并遵循利好趋势（追逐风险）；
下跌时迅速杀跌（规避风险）；
确认触底时再次建仓(再次追逐风险);
利用行业、国家和区域指数跟踪基金和一篮子组合进行分散投资, 尽量降低投资一种股票或债券的风险。
我们采用价格-概率数学建模法判断市场是否显现利好或下跌趋势，是否走强或走弱，是否有可能在下一个周期（对我们而言是一个月）继续利好或下跌行情，以此控制“摩擦性”交易成本。雷梭勒家族办公室不随股市走势而决定是否投资，尤其是在股市从触底反弹之时。
小结与展望
除了上证综指之外，2019年迄今为止表现最好的国家股指是：阿根廷(+ 16.7%)、土耳其（+13.3%）和埃及(+13.3%)，都是以美元计价的，而没有一个国家的政治或经济环境具备足够的吸引力。由于上述原因，我们将保持100%的现金，直到新的上升趋势得以确认。
James Cunningham
Chief Investment Officer
首席投资官
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
瑞士雷梭勒家族办公室
Feburary 28th, 2019
2019年2月28日
English Version
Equities start the year on a roll
The MSCI World global index is up +11.1% in just two months, driven mostly by the American S&P 500 index’ gain of +11.4%. China, a loser over recent years, is up +18.4% (Shanghai). Even the Euro area has gained + 9.4%, despite slowing growth, especially in its main economic driver, Germany. Even Italy, Europe’s laggard, has seen its stock index rise + 11.9%.
Yet the OECD has reduced its estimates of global GDP growth as well as for trade for 2019. Manufacturing is slowing (see chart below). Britain and the EU are still at an impasse over Brexit. Why the investor optimism? Analysts point to central banks’ newly cautious attitude: the US Federal Reserve has stopped raising its benchmark interestrates and reducing its stock of Treasury bonds; the European Central Bank has postponed cutting its stimulus.
In China, the government has encouraged banks to lend more to counter a slowing economy. But these policies are a response to a negative outlook for growth and therefore for the corporate profits that should underpin stock markets’ performance.
The recovery in stocks looks overstretched
Industrials, Real Estate and Energy are the strongest sectors in American stocks thus far in 2019, all cyclicals. IT, hit in late 2018, is up 14% thanks to ongoing digitalization. That suggests that the prior sell-off from mid-November through Christmas was overdone. The S&P 500 has risen by nearly 20% from its December 24th interim low, and yet we are reluctant to reenter the market. A glance at the chart below shows why. The US market is again above its 200-day moving average, a positive indicator, but it is right in the zone of the previous three failed rally tops. We did have a buy signal according to our model on February 14th. The index is now only 1.9% higher, and 3.4% above our selling point on October 25th. We need to see the index decisively above the old failed rally highs to have confidence in a new bull run. At its current level, the S&P is 7.7% below the old September high, also a potential resistance level: near-term,upside is limited.
China and America are nearer to a trade agreement
President Trump is encouraged enough by progress in negotiations to postpone indefinitely a 25% increase in tariffs on Chinese exports to the US. Just what the eventual agreement will be in detail is still unclear. Consider one aspect that “Team Trump” may not have considered: China has invested its massive trade surpluses with America in $1.3 trillion of US Treasury bonds. As that trade surplus falls, so will China’s surplus dollars, and with it its appetite for Treasuries. Meanwhile, Trump’s tax cuts and slowing US growth point to a rising US budget deficit and therefore an increase in the issuance of Treasury bonds.
Our Policy
As our readers know, La Soleille does not make predictions based on economic, industry or company analysis. We act on market trends and other technical signals alone. In asset management we follow four principles:
Identify and follow positive trends (risk on)
Sell fast when they turn negative (risk off)
Buy again when a bottom is confirmed (risk back on)
Diversify by using sector, national and regional index-tracking funds and baskets, thus minimizing exposure to any particular stock or bond
We use mathematical modeling of prices and probabilities to determine if a trend is positive or negative, strengthening or weakening, and likely or not to continue for the next period (which for us is one month, to control trading cost “friction”). La Soleille is contrarian at the trend change, particularly when a downtrend turns positive.
Summary and Outlook
After Shanghai, the best national stock index performances thus far in 2019 are Argentina (+ 16.7%), Turkey (+ 13.3%), and Egypt (+13.3%), all in US dollars, none of which have an attractive political or economic environment. For reasons indicated above, we remain 100% in cash until the new uptrend is confirmed.
James Cunningham
Chief Investment Officer
La Soleille Family Office (Suisse) SA
Feburary 28th, 2019
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